Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I'm going to start off on a somber note today: This will be the final newsletter that you'll be getting from me and that's because I've decided to retire from writing so that I can focus more time on growing yams in my backyard garden. I love yams.
Just kidding. April Fools. I don't know how to garden and I actually hate yams.
This newsletter isn't going anywhere and there's a good chance I'll be writing it until the end of time and that's mostly because I love writing newsletters. That being said, for the rest of today's edition, I will try to keep the April fooling to a minimum, but I can't promise anything.
The April 1 jokes have been going crazy today with David Njoku tricking people into thinking he was demanding a trade and Julian Edelman fooling people into thinking he had signed with the Buccaneers. Neither of those things actually happened.
Speaking of the Buccaneers, they have the highest projected win total in the NFL this year. We'll be going over the win totals for all 32 teams, plus taking a look at Jerry Jones' paternity lawsuit.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. All you have to do is click here and then share the link. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: NFL Draft needs for teams in the AFC and NFC North
The NFL Draft will be kicking off in less than four weeks, which means you're going to be hearing a lot from our draft analysts from now until the start of the draft on April 28. Two of those draft analysts -- Josh Edwards and Chris Trapasso -- joined Will Brinson for Friday's episode of the Pick Six Podcast and the three of them spent nearly an hour talking about draft needs for each team in the AFC and NFC North.
One thing they all agreed on: The Packers need some wide receiver help.
"There are opportunities for them to take a wide receiver on Day 2 and possibly conserve that second first-round pick, but I don't see anything wrong with them taking two wide receivers [in the first round]," Edwards said. "This team has some needs, but far and away, wide receiver is the biggest need. I'm looking at a guy like Ohio State's Chris Olave or Arkansas' Treylon Burks."
Edwards also mentioned Penn State's Jahan Dotson and Georgia's George Pickens as possible targets for the Packers. One other name mentioned was North Dakota State's Christian Watson, who the Packers could go after if they want to wait until the second round to grab a receiver.
The Packers also should be looking to target an offensive linemen, a tight end, a defensive tackle and a pass rusher at some point in the draft. One thing to note is that the Packers have TWO first-round picks this year (No. 22 and 28) thanks to the Davante Adams trade.
If you want to hear the draft needs for the other three teams in the NFC North along with the four teams in the AFC North, you'll have to listen to today's show, which you can do by clicking here. You can also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Projected win totals for all 32 teams
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas have released their win totals for the 2022 NFL season and in news that probably won't surprise you, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are tied for the highest projected win total in the NFL. The Bucs have an Over/Under of 11.5 wins, which is tied with the Bills.
Here are a few nuggets from all the win totals.
- Lowest totals. The Falcons, Jets and Texans all have an Over/Under of five wins or less, which is the lowest in the NFL. The Texans are in Year 2 of a rebuild and the Jets are the Jets, so it isn't that surprising to see them so low. As for the Falcons, they just traded away their long-time franchise QB, so the oddsmakers in Vegas clearly aren't expecting much from them this year.
- No respect for Super Bowl teams. The two Super Bowl teams from 2021 aren't getting much respect. The Rams (10.5) are tied for the fourth-highest projected win total while the Bengals (9.5) are tied for the 10th highest total.
- No respect for 2021 playoff teams. There are four playoff teams from last season who have an Over/Under lower than nine and those four teams are the Patriots (8.5), Raiders (8.5), Eagles (8.5) and Steelers (7.5). The Steelers make sense because they just lost Ben Roethlisberger. The Raiders win total is low because they play in the toughest division in the NFL, but as for the other two, the numbers for Philadelphia, and especially New England, feel low. I might just go ahead and bet the over on the both the Eagles and Patriots right now.
- Oddsmakers are high on the AFC West. There are nine teams with an Over/Under of 10 or more wins and the most notable part of that fact is that three of those nine teams are from the AFC West with the Chiefs (10.5), Chargers (10) and Broncos (10) all having a double-digit win total. With an Over/Under of 8.5, the Raiders are the only AFC West team that didn't crack double digits.
Here are the all win totals for all 32 teams from highest to lowest (win totals via Caesars Sports Book): Bills (11.5), Buccaneers (11.5), Packers (11.5), Chiefs (10.5), Cowboys (10.5), Rams (10.5), 49ers (10), Chargers (10), Broncos (10), Browns (9.5), Bengals (9.5), Titans (9.5), Colts (9.5), Ravens (9.5), Cardinals (9), Dolphins (8.5), Patriots (8.5), Raiders (8.5), Eagles (8.5), Vikings (8.5), Steelers (7.5), Commanders (7.5), Saints (7.5), Giants (7), Jaguars (6.5), Bears (6.5), Lions (6.5), Panthers (6), Seahawks (6), Falcons (5.5), Jets (5.5), Texans (4.5).
Tyler Sullivan put together a list of bets bets for these win totals and you can check those out by clicking here (Spoiler alert: He likes the Jets going over 5.5 wins).
3. Ranking divisions by their starting quarterbacks
When it comes to quarterback movement, this has been arguably the craziest offseason in NFL history with Super Bowl winners (like Russell Wilson) changing teams and former NFL MVPs (like Matt Ryan) changing teams.
The QB movement has shifted the balance of power in the NFL and nowhere is that more notable than the NFC South, which is now the worst QB division in the league, despite the fact that Tom Brady plays in it.
How do I know the NFC South is the worst division? Because that's where it we had it this week when we decided to rank each division by starting quarterbacks.
Cody Benjamin handled the ranking and here's how that ranking broke down:
1. AFC West: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson
2. AFC North: Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky
3. NFC North: Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields
4. NFC West: Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Trey Lance/Jimmy Garoppolo, Drew Lock (for now)
5. AFC East: Josh Allen, Mac Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Zach Wilson
6. AFC South: Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Trevor Lawrence, Davis Mills
7. NFC East: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Jalen Hurts, Daniel Jones
8. NFC South: Tom Brady, Jameis Winston, Sam Darnold, Marcus Mariota
The crazy thing about the NFC South is that Brady is the only current starting QB in the division who wasn't a top-three pick in the NFL Draft. Winston was the No. 1 overall pick in 2015, Mariota was the No. 2 overall pick in the same year and Darnold was the No. 3 overall pick in 2018. The takeaway here is that no one knows anything when it comes to drafting quarterbacks.
If you'd like Cody's full explanation for why he ranked each division where he did, then you can check out his entire story by clicking here.
4. Jerry Jones paternity lawsuit is getting messier
Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is currently facing a paternity lawsuit that was filed in early March by 25-year-old Alexandra Davis, and although he has not admitted to being Davis' father, a lawyer for Jones admitted on Thursday that the Cowboys owner has paid out millions to Alexandra and her mom, Cynthia Spencer Davis.
It's been nearly a month since the lawsuit was filed and new details seem to be coming out every week. Jones' lawyer, Don Jack, told ESPN.com that he has regularly given money to the two Davis women on Jones' behalf since Alexandra's birth on Dec. 16, 1996.
Here's a breakdown of that money:
- Lump sum payment. Jack claims he gave Spencer Davis a payment of $375,000 in 1995 to help take care of the child.
- Two trusts have been set up. According to Jack, the Cowboys owner set up two trusts to help pay for Alexandra Davis' upbringing and those trusts have paid out more than $1.2 million over the past 25 years. Also, Alexandra Davis is expected to get two more payments from the trusts, with one coming when she turns 26 and another slated for when she turns 28.
- Jones has also footed the bill for several extravagant items. Jones' lawyer says the Cowboys owner forked over money for several big-ticket items, including a $70,000 Range Rover that Alexandra Davis received on her 16th birthday. That same year, Jones also spent $33,000 to help throw a "Sweet 16" birthday party. The Cowboys owner also forked over nearly $50,000 for two big trips Alexandra Davis took abroad.
- Jack claims that the entire lawsuit is a money grab. According to Jack, he met with Alexandra Davis a few years ago and she requested a one-time payment of $20 million. "Alex read to me a personal letter she had drafted to Jerry Jones in which she expressed her dissatisfaction with what she had received and sought $20 million," Jack said. "She stated that if that amount was paid, she would not bother Mr. Jones again and would keep their relationship confidential."
Of course, this is Jones' version of events. According to Alexandra Davis' lawsuit, which was filed on March 3, the $375,000 lump sum payment given to her mom was actually hush money to buy her silence about the true identity of Alexandra's real father. According to the paternity lawsuit, Alexandra Davis doesn't want money, she just wants to have a father she can acknowledge.
There are a lot of twists and turns in this case and if you're looking for more details on it, then be sure to click here.
5. Top 10 free agents left on the market
Every Friday, we'll be closing out the week by taking a look at the biggest names still available in free agency.
Before free agency started, Pete Prisco made a list of his top 100 free agents for 2022 and as we get ready to enter the FOURTH week of wheeling and dealing, eight of his top-35 players are still available.
The biggest prize left on the market is cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who would be an instant upgrade in the secondary for pretty much any team in the NFL. Over the past week, we only saw two of our top-10 remaining free agents get signed (Bobby Wagner and Patrick Peterson) and with those two out, we've now updated our list of top remaining players.
With that in mind, let's check out the 10 highest-ranked players from Prisco's top 100 list who are still available (they're listed with the team they played for last season):
1. CB Stephon Gilmore (Panthers)
2. FS Tyrann Mathieu (Chiefs)
3. DL Akiem Hicks (Bears)
4. EDGE Jadeveon Clowney (Browns)
5. OL Duane Brown (Seahawks)
6. TE Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers)
7. WR Odell Beckham (Rams)
8. EDGE Melvin Ingram (Steelers)
9. OT Eric Fisher (Colts)
10. SS Kareem Jackson (Broncos)
Although free agency has definitely slowed down, don't be surprised if it picks up again before the start of the draft. If a team can fill a need in free agency, that's one less need they have to worry about when the draft rolls around.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Bobby Wagner signs with Rams
It's been a wild 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Rams land Bobby Wagner. The former Seahawks star will be staying in the NFC West after agreeing to a five-year, $50 million deal on Thursday. The eight-time Pro Bowler will now join a defense that includes Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Before signing with the Rams, Wagner had spent his entire 10-year career in Seattle.
- Bruce Arians going into the Buccaneers Ring of Honor. During Arians' farewell press conference on Thursday, the team revealed that the retired coach will be inducted into Tampa Bay's Ring of Honor at some point during the 2022 season. Arians will be the 14th person in franchise history to be inducted.
- Commanders being investigated for financial improprieties. The Commanders were already in hot water for the multiple sexual harassment claims that have been made against the franchise over the past few years, and now, they could be potentially facing another serious issue. According to Front Office Sports, a Congressional committee is looking into the possibility that the team "used 'two books' of financial information that paint different pictures of the team's money situation." If this accusation turns out to be true, the Commanders could be in some serious trouble. You can get the full details of the story by clicking here.
- 49ers exercise Kyle Juszczyk's option. The 49ers had until April 1 to pick up Juszczyk's $2.15 million option bonus and they did exactly that this week. Juszczyk is one of just five players in the NFL who has been selected to the Pro Bowl in each of the last 6 seasons (the others are Travis Kelce, Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner and Tyreek Hill).
- Raiders sign a QB. It looks like there's going to be a QB battle to see who backs up Derek Carr in Las Vegas. According to NFL.com, the Raiders signed Nick Mullens on Friday. The signing means Mullens will likely be competing with Garrett Gilbert for the No. 2 QB job.
