Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six Newsletter!
The only thing I wanted for Christmas this year was an extra day of football and Santa has definitely come through because we're getting a double dose of Tuesday games tonight. If there's one day of the week where the NFL almost never plays, it's definitely Tuesday. The two games tonight will mark just the fourth and fifth time that the NFL has held a Tuesday game since 1950.
Since Santa came through this year, I'm definitely going to test my luck by asking for $7 million next year.
As for those games, we'll be previewing both of them in today's newsletter. We'll also be recapping the Monday games, and I'll be handing out my Week 16 picks, so let's get to the rundown.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. A Pick Six subscription makes an excellent and also inexpensive holiday gift.
1. Today's show: Recapping the two Monday games
Our Tuesday podcast was double the fun today and that's because we got to recap TWO Monday games instead of one. The Raiders' 16-14 win over the Browns was an unexpectedly dramatic game that wasn't decided until the final play. On the other hand, the Vikings 17-9 win over the Bears was the opposite of exciting, unless you like penalty flags and bad football.
Here are four key things from yesterday that we touched on during the podcast:
- Derek Carr bounces back. Carr almost threw the Raiders' season away with two turnovers in the second half, but then he totally redeemed himself with a game-winning drive in the final 110 seconds. After Carr threw an interception with just under three minutes left to play, the Raiders looked to be left for dead. However, the Raiders ended up getting the ball right back after the defense came up with a huge three-and-out. Carr then took advantage of his new opportunity by throwing for 41 yards over the final 1:50 to set up Daniel Carlson's game-winning field goal from 48 yards away. Carr wasn't on fire in this game (26 of 38 for 236 yards, 1 TD), but he ended up playing just well enough to win.
- Depleted Browns almost pull off upset. Despite having 18 players out due to COVID, including eight starters, the Browns were still able to almost pull off a miracle win. The defense kept things close by forcing two turnovers and holding the Raiders to just one touchdown, but it melted down on Vegas' final possession. Offensively, Nick Mullens played as well as you can expect a third-string QB to play, and his numbers would have been even better if the Browns weren't plagued by drops, including an ugly one by Donovan Peoples-Jones on a deep pass in the first quarter. The drops weren't the only problem for the Browns: kicker Chase McLaughlin also missed a 47-yard field goal just before halftime that would have provided some much-needed points.
- Defense carries Minnesota. It's not easy to win when you don't even put up 200 yards of total offense, but the Vikings managed to do it Monday and it was all thanks to their defense. The Vikings defense forced three turnovers, stopped the Bears on three fourth downs, sacked Justin Fields three times (all by D.J. Wonnum) while limiting the Bears to just three points on four trips to the red zone until a garbage-time TD on the final play. The Vikings won despite getting just 87 passing yards from Cousins, which was a career-low for the quarterback. The Vikings finished with just 193 total yards, making them just the fourth team this year to win a game without cracking the 200-yard mark.
- Bears implode. The Bears actually outgained the Vikings by nearly 200 yards (370-193), but they lost because the offense imploded anytime it got into Minnesota territory. In the first 58 minutes of this game, the Bears got into Vikings territory a total of seven times, but only came away with one score (a field goal). On the other six possessions, the Bears had three failed fourth downs, two lost fumbles and a missed field goal. There were so many mistakes that it was almost painful to watch. The Bears did get a TD on the final play of the game, but by then, it didn't matter. The only redeeming factor in this game for the Bears was the play of their defense. The Bears limited the Vikings to just 193 yards, which was a big reason why this game didn't turn into a blowout despite the offense's inability to score touchdowns.
Besides those four things, we also spent some serious time trying talking about the playoff picture in both the AFC and NFC. To listen to today's episode -- and to subscribe to the best daily NFL podcast out there -- be sure to click here. You can also watch Monday's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. NFL playoff picture heading into Tuesday's games
With only three weeks left in the regular season, the playoff picture is still a jumbled mess. So far, only ONE team has officially clinched a playoff berth and that's the Green Bay Packers.
Here's what the playoff picture looks like heading into the two games being played Tuesday.
AFC
1. Chiefs (10-4)
2. Patriots (9-5)
3. Titans (9-5)
4. Bengals (8-6)
5. Colts (8-6)
6. Chargers (8-6)
7. Bills (8-6)
Here's how devastating the Browns' loss was on Monday: If they had won, they would be sitting where the Bengals are in the fourth spot, but since they lost, they are now sitting in the 12TH SPOT in the AFC. Although the Bengals are currently at the top of the AFC North, their stay might not last long. If the Bengals lose to the Ravens in Week 16, Baltimore will take over the top spot. The Patriots and Bills also have a huge showdown this week. A win by the Bills will put them at the top of the AFC East.
NFC
1. Packers (11-3)*
2. Cowboys (10-4)
3. Buccaneers (10-4)
4. Cardinals (10-4)
5. Rams (9-4)
6. 49ers (8-6)
7. Vikings (7-7)
There's one game tonight that could have an immediate impact on the NFC playoff standings and that's Washington-Philadelphia. If Washington wins, that means the Football Team will jump up to the seventh spot, which will bump the Vikings out. On the other hand, if the Eagles win, the Vikings will remain in the seventh spot. The crazy part about the NFC is that four of the top-seven teams will be playing before we even get Sunday. After the Rams play tonight, the 49ers will play Thursday, which will be followed by the Packers (vs. the Browns) and Cardinals (vs. the Colts) both playing on Christmas Day.
3. Tuesday preview: Prepping you for Seahawks at Rams
With the Cardinals' upset loss to the Lions on Sunday, the NFC West is now there for the taking and the Rams can take a huge step toward stealing the division with a win over Seattle. On the other hand, the Seahawks need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, so they're going to be desperate, which means this isn't going to be an easy game for the Rams, who are 6.5-point favorites.
Jeff Kerr wrote our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees it playing out:
- Why the Seahawks can win: Since their Week 11 bye, the Rams are averaging 31.7 points per game, which is bad news for the Seahawks, because if this game turns into a shootout, it's unlikely that Seattle is going to be able to keep up. What this means is that the Seahawks are going to need a huge game from their defense. If Seattle can force Matthew Stafford into making mistakes, it'll have a good chance to win. The Rams are 0-2 this year in games where Stafford throws multiple picks.
- Why the Rams can win: The Rams have won six of their past eight games against the Seahawks, and one reason they've been so successful is because they do such a good job of bottling up Russell Wilson. In the first meeting between these two teams, Wilson played the first three quarters before getting injured and only managed to lead the Seahawks to seven points while he was on the field. Basically, the Rams defense is so familiar with Wilson's style that it rarely gives up any big plays. If they keep the big plays from happening, the Rams should be able to come away with a win.
You can get a full preview of the game from Kerr by clicking here. You can see our picks for the game below and as you'll notice, one of us is PICKING AN UPSET. (It's not me.)
Kerr's pick: Seahawks 27-24 over Rams.
My pick: Rams 34-24 over Seahawks.
Finally, here are all the other details you need to know about the game:
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 21 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Rams -7, O/U 47
4. Tuesday preview: Prepping you for Washington at Philadelphia
With the Eagles and Washington deadlocked at 6-7 in the NFC East, this is a huge game for both teams. The winner of this divisional showdown will take one step closer toward a possible wild-card berth while the loser is going to be in a giant hole heading into the final three weeks of the season. And as we all know, you never want to be in a giant hole.
Cody Benjamin wrote our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees it playing out:
- Why the Eagles can win: Jalen Hurts is expected to be returning tonight after an ankle injury caused him to miss Philadelphia's last game. If Hurts is struggling with his mobility, that could be a huge factor, because that would take away a key element of Philly's rushing attack. However, if Hurts can't run so well, that might lead the Eagles to throw the ball more, which could work out in their favor considering Washington has surrendered the third-most passing yards in the NFL this year. If Hurts is efficient and accurate with his passing, he should be able to do enough to help the Eagles pull out a win. Also, if Washington is down to its third-string QB, the Eagles defense might be able to make enough plays to win this game on its own.
- Why Washington can win: Winning this game is going to be a tall task and that's because Washington is going to be missing several key players. For one, the Football Team is likely going to be down to third-string QB Garrett Gilbert unless Taylor Heinicke or Kyle Allen test off the COVID list .(They have until 4 p.m. today to record a negative test.) Also, Washington is going to be missing two key offensive weapons (J.D. McKissic and Curtis Samuel) along with All-Pro guard Brandon Scherff, who was placed on the COVID list on Monday. The only good news for the Football Team is that it did get five defensive linemen back from the COVID list, which basically means it's going to need a huge game from its defense if it wants to win.
You can get a full preview of the game from Benjamin by clicking here.
Cody's pick: Eagles 27-15 over Washington.
My pick: Eagles 22-19 over Washington.
If Cody's pick is wrong, we can all laugh at him together in tomorrow's newsletter since he'll be writing it. Actually, I take that back, if he's wrong, that means I'm wrong and I'm not going to laugh at myself, so no laughing.
Finally, here are all the other details you need to know about the game:
Date: Tuesday, Dec. 21 | Time: 7 p.m. ET
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Eagles -6.5, O/U 41.5
5. Breech's Week 16 picks
It's Tuesday, and that can only mean one thing: It's time for my weekly picks.
Even though Week 15 isn't EVEN OVER YET, I still wrote my Week 16 picks because that's how things work around here. If I don't write my picks Monday night, then I get confused and if I get confused, then I'll miss all my picks so that's why you're getting them now. Last week, I wasn't confused, which is clearly one reason why I went 10-4 against the spread.
With that in mind, here are three of my picks for Week 16.
- Indianapolis (+1.5) at Arizona: If I were the Cardinals, I'd ask the NFL to postpone this game and not because of COVID, but because I wouldn't want to show my face in public for at least two weeks after losing to the Lions. The Colts are 8-0 this season when Jonathan Taylor rushes for 100 yards or more and 0-6 when he doesn't. I'm going to say he tops the century mark and the Colts end up having a Murray Christmas, which is what it's called when you beat Kyler Murray on Christmas Day. PICK: Colts 27-24 over Cardinals.
- Baltimore at Cincinnati (-2.5): In the first meeting, Joe Burrow threw for more than 400 yards, and he did that even though the Ravens had their star cornerback, Marlon Humphrey, on the field. This time around they won't have Humphrey and they could also be missing several other key starters, which makes it tough to imagine a situation where Baltimore is able to slow down the Bengals offense. PICK: Bengals 30-23 over Ravens.
- Buffalo (+2.5) at New England: When it comes to picking this game, my conundrum is that I think the Bills have a slightly more talented team, but I think the Patriots have slightly better coaching, so I'm not sure what to do here. The Bills offense played as poorly as possible in the first game and Buffalo STILL almost won. This time around, I think we'll see Josh Allen play slightly better since there won't be any 700 mph winds and that will lead to the Bills getting revenge and winning. PICK: Bills 20-17 over Patriots.
To check out the rest of my picks for Week 16, which are holiday-themed, be sure to click here.
6. Rapid-fire roundup
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Travis Kelce and Harrison Butker among Chiefs placed on COVID list. The Chiefs could be missing two key players this week after Kelce and Butker both tested positive for COVID. Cornerback Charvarius Ward was also placed on the list. If the players are vaccinated, they could return for Sunday's game against the Steelers by recording one negative test.
- Chargers hit hard by COVID. Three-time Pro Bowler Joey Bosa and starting center Corey Linsley were placed on the COVID list Monday. Bosa isn't vaccinated, which means he'll definitely miss this week's game against Houston. As for Linsley, he could return if he records a negative test. Star running back Austin Ekeler is also reportedly going on the list, but that hasn't officially happened as of this writing.
- Daniel Jones done for the year. Jones has already missed two games due to a neck injury and now, he's going to miss the rest of the season. The team announced that Jones won't be returning this year, which means they'll be moving forward with either Mike Glennon or Jake Fromm over the final three weeks.
- Jared Goff placed on COVID list. Less than 24 hours after beating the Cardinals, Goff was placed on the COVID list, which puts his status in doubt for this week's game against the Falcons. Like other players, Goff can play this week as long as he's vaccinated AND tests negative at some point before Sunday's game.
- Chris Godwin out for the year. The initial diagnosis on Godwin was a strained MCL, but as it turns out, the injury was actually much more serious. Coach Bruce Arians revealed that Godwin actually tore his ACL, which means the receiver won't be returning at all this year. (When his injury was thought to be a strain, the Bucs were hoping he might be able to return in the playoffs.) The injury means that Godwin, who will be a free agent in March, might have played his last down with the Buccaneers.
