The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are both 1-1 after impressive wins as underdogs in Week 1 followed by close, disappointing losses in Week 2. However, neither franchise will have long to dwell on it since the two AFC North rivals will go head-to-head on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. The two teams have split the last six matchups, but the series was dominated by the Steelers prior to that, with the Browns winning just three of 31 matchups.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cleveland. Caesars Sportsbook lists Cleveland as a 4.5-point favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 38 in the latest Steelers vs. Browns odds. Before making any Browns vs. Steelers picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up more than $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-102 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has set its sights on Steelers vs. Browns, and just locked in its Thursday Night Football picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Browns vs. Steelers:
- Steelers vs. Browns spread: Browns -4.5
- Steelers vs. Browns over/under: 38 points
- Steelers vs. Browns money line: Browns -220, Steelers +180
- PIT: Steelers are 9-10-1 against the spread in the last 20 games
- CLE: Browns are 8-11 against the spread in the last 19 games
- Steelers vs. Browns picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Steelers can cover
Pittsburgh has strengths, but the Steelers should also benefit from Cleveland's shortcomings to this point in the season. On offense, Cleveland is below the NFL average in passing yards and yards per attempt, and that projects to continue with Deshaun Watson suspended. On defense, the Browns scuffled in glaring fashion against the Jets last week, giving up 31 points, and Cleveland is allowing 27.5 points per game. Cleveland is strongly below-average in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed, net yards per pass attempt allowed, and third down defense. Pittsburgh is also stout on defense, giving up only 37 points in two games.
The Steelers have a top-tier star in Minkah Fitzpatrick, who already has two interceptions this season, and Pittsburgh is near the top of the league in interceptions (five) and turnover creation rate (25%). Opponents are producing only 4.0 yards per carry on the ground against the Steelers, and Mike Tomlin has a sterling reputation for having his team ready in difficult situations such as a short week on the road in division play.
Why the Browns can cover
Cleveland opened its season with a 26-24 win on the road over the Panthers in what many assumed would be the Baker Mayfield revenge game. However, Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt put together a solid game plan by leaning heavily on the running game and asking quarterback Jacoby Brissett to take care of the football.
Cleveland ran for 217 yards as a team in the Week 1 victory with Nick Chubb rushing for 141 yards while Kareem Hunt produced 70 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Then the Browns followed a similar game plan against the Jets and appeared to be cruising to a 2-0 start before unraveling in the final two minutes and blowing a 13-point lead. Expect a similar offensive scheme on a short week against the Steelers, who rank 22nd in the NFL in run defense through the first two games of the year.
How to make Browns vs. Steelers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 40 combined points scored. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's Steelers vs. Browns picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Steelers vs. Browns on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Browns vs. Steelers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that's 139-102 on NFL picks, and find out.