Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I know what you're thinking, and yes, I will be keeping the intro short today because I have a Cinco de Mayo margarita calling my name and the sooner I get this newsletter done, the sooner I can get to that.
We actually have a jam-packed newsletter today: Not only are we giving out best bets for rookie of the year, but we'll also be making 10 bold predictions for the 2023 season. Also, since we've managed to squeeze in at least one post-draft topic every day this week, I made sure that streak continued today with one more story about the NFL Draft.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's podcast: Early best bets for rookie of the year
It's been nearly a week since the end of the NFL Draft and now that they've had plenty of time to think about it, the Pick Six crew thought today would be the perfect time to give out their best bets for rookie of the year, so that's exactly what they did on today's episode of the "Pick Six Podcast."
For today's show, host Katie Mox was joined by NFL Draft guru Ryan Wilson and gambling guru R.J. White and they revealed their best bets for rookie of the year, so let's take a look:
- Offensive rookie of the year best bet: Anthony Richardson (+900 -- bet $100 to win $900)
- Favorites: Bijan Robinson (+350), Bryce Young (+400), C.J. Stroud (+650)
"The last five offensive rookie of the year winners have all been top-10 picks, so I think if you're looking to make a bet, you have to look in the top-10," White said. "I like Richardson's odds at 9-to-1... Shane Steichen had success turning Jalen Hurts into an MVP candidate. Hurts wasn't the starter his rookie year, but Richardson can come in and prepare as the starter, get a full workload and hit the ground running. His rushing ability is an added bonus, it's going give him that Josh Allen type of elevation to his game. His passing numbers don't have to be as good as the other guys because he's going to be good on the rushing front."
- Defensive rookie of the year best bet: Devon Witherspoon, Seahawks (+1000), Emmanuel Forbes, Commanders (+1500)
- Favorites: Jalen Carter, Eagles (+500), Will Anderson, Texans (+500), Tyree Wilson, Raiders (+650)
"He's a top-five pick, he should have shorter odds," White said of Witherspoon. "At 10-to-1, it just seems like oddsmakers aren't pricing him correctly based on the history of this award. If he's good, quarterbacks won't be able to avoid him, because he's got Tariq Woolen on the other side."
As for Wilson, if he had to make a bet now for defensive rookie of the year, he'd go with Forbes.
"Of all the things that translate from one level to the next, it's creating turnovers and he had 14 interceptions in college along with six pick sixes," Wilson said. "I imagine he'll get targeted early on until teams figure out whether he's good or not, so he'll have his opportunities."
If you're looking for a long shot, the guys like Dolphins running back Devon Achane (+4000) or Panthers receiver Jonathan Mingo (+7500) on the offensive side of the ball. As for the defensive side, they like Will McDonald of the Jets (+4000) and Seattle's Derick Hall (+6000) as their two long shots.
2. 10 bold predictions for the 2023 NFL season
It's never too early to start making bold predictions about the upcoming NFL season, so that's exactly what we're going to do today, and when I say "we," I actually just mean Jeff Kerr, the CBSSports.com writer who will be handling today's bold predictions.
With that being said, let's check out all 10 predictions:
1. The Detroit Lions win a playoff game for the first time since 1991.
2. Lamar Jackson throws for at least 4,000 yards.
3. The NFC East has a repeat winner for the first time since 2004.
4. Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson finishes the season ranked in the top five in rushing yards.
5. Justin Jefferson becomes the first player in more than a decade to lead the NFL in receiving yards in back-to-back seasons.
6. Garrett Wilson has at least 1,500 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers.
7. The Cowboys reach the NFC title game.
8. The Patriots have their worst season ever under Bill Belichick (Right now, his worst season came in 2000 when the Patriots finished 5-11 during his first year with the team).
9. Nick Bosa gets 20 sacks during the regular season.
10. Patrick Mahomes throws for at least 5,000 yards, becoming the second QB in NFL history to hit that number in back-to-back seasons (Drew Brees did it three straight times from 2011-13).
If you want Kerr's full explanation for each predictions, then make sure to.
3. Ranking all 32 teams based on their offseason moves
Two days ago, Pete Prisco unveiled his Kansas City Chiefs came out on top. Today, we're once again ranking all 32 teams, but this time, the Chiefs are NOT on top and that's because this ranking is based on how each team has done this offseason., and not surprisingly, the
Cody Benjamin tallied up every free agent signing, every trade and every draft pick that was made this offseason and then ranked each team based on how well they've done.
Here's a look at the five teams that had the best offseason, according to Cody:
1. Lions. "They addressed glaring secondary holes both aggressively and frugally, adding a trio of physical starters in CB Cameron Sutton, CB Emmanuel Moseley and S C.J. Gardner-Johnson for less than $50 million combined."
2. Jets. "In a league full of teams starving for difference-making QBs, they're getting a near-Tom Brady-level rental in Aaron Rodgers. Even with a steep price tag, it's a big win for a playoff-caliber roster."
3. Panthers. "Losing WR D.J. Moore to move up in the draft robbed them of a building block, but they also guaranteed themselves a virtual total package at QB in No. 1 pick Bryce Young."
4. Bears. "QB Justin Fields finally has a legit No. 1 WR in D.J. Moore thanks to their trade down from the No. 1 pick. OG Nate Davis should help up front. And both RB D'Onta Foreman and TE Robert Tonyan should be rugged red-zone options. Getting a potential Day 1 starting RT in rookie Darnell Wright is a plus as well."
5. Eagles. "The draft is where this team really won, adding Georgia teammates Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith and Kelee Ringo to their already impressive defense."
This is just a small taste of Cody's rankings. If you want to see where all 32 teams ended up,.
4. 10 rookies who could have an instant impact
I know I say this every day, but at some point, we'll eventually run out of NFL Draft stories to share in this newsletter. However, that won't be happening today. Nope, today we're going to take a look at the 10 rookies who are most likely to have an instant impact with their new team.
CBSSports.com draft guru Chris Trapasso waded through all 259 picks in this year's draft to come up with his list, so let's take a look at the 10 guys who are most likely to have an instant impact (The only rule with this list is that Chris did not include any quarterbacks because they're obviously going to have an instant impact if they end up starting).
Here's a look at Trapasso's top 10:
1. OL Darnell Wright, Bears (10th overall pick)
2. RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons (eighth overall pick)
3. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (12th overall pick)
4. CB Deonte Banks, Giants (24th overall pick)
5. CB Christian Gonzalez, Patriots (17th overall pick)
6. WR Jordan Addison, Vikings (24th overall pick)
7. TE Sam LaPorta, Lions (34th overall pick)
8. WR Quentin Johnston, Chargers (21st overall pick)
9. WR Zay Flowers, Ravens (22nd overall pick)
10. WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Seahawks (20th overall pick)
If you want to know why each of these draft picks made the cut, then be sure to. We also took a look at some Day 3 picks who could have .
5. Lamar Jackson wants to smash the NFL single-season passing record
It took a week, but Lamar Jackson finally showed up to sign his new contract and after the signing, the Ravens quarterback took questions from the media for the first time since December. Jackson had a lot to say during his press conference and we're going to cover some of it here.
- Jackson wants to throw for 6,000 yards in 2023. With a group of receivers that now includes Odell Beckham, Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor, Jackson thinks he can hit 6,000 passing yards this season. "I think I told someone, I want to throw for like 6,000 yards with the weapons we have," Jackson said. "I'm not an individual, award type of guy. I just want to do that because no one's ever done that before, and we have the weapons to do that." That's a monstrous goal for a guy who's never even thrown for 3,200 yards in a season. If Jackson did throw for 6,000, it would smash the single-season passing record of 5,477 that was set by Peyton Manning in 2013.
- Jackson wasn't interested in signing with other teams. "I didn't really care for other teams," Jackson said. "I just really wanted to get something here. Other teams are cool, but I wanted to be a Raven. I said something in 2018 … I meant that. I wanted to get this done. … I really wanted to finish my career here and win a Super Bowl here."
- Jackson didn't want to talk about his trade demand. If he didn't want to play for any other teams, then why did he demand a trade? He was asked about that, but he ended up ducking the question. "Today, we're gonna keep it about the future," Jackson said, via PFT. "I'm not really worried about what happened in the past. I'm gonna keep it about these next five years. And keep it about what's going on today. You know, it's a great day."
- Full contract details released. When Jackson signed, we knew he got a five-year, $260 million contract, but we didn't know any of the details. One key detail that came out Thursday is that Jackson was given a $72 million signing bonus, which is an NFL record. Jackson was also given a no-tag clause and a no-trade clause, so he'll be able to hit free agency at the end of his deal or the Ravens will have to pony up if they want to keep him. You can see the full details of his contract here.
If you want the full story on Jackson's press conference,.
6. Extra points: Dexter Lawrence lands monstrous extension from Giants
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Dexter Lawrence gets paid. The Pro Bowl defensive tackle on Thursday that's worth up to $90 million. Lawrence, who was the 17th overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, is now the third-highest paid defensive tackle in the NFL.
- Bills to break ground on new stadium. The paperwork for the Bills' new stadium was officially finalized this week, which means the team . CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones reported on Thursday that construction will start in June and that the hope is that the building will be ready in time for the 2026 season.
- Jalen Carter becomes first first-round pick to sign rookie deal. Only one first-round pick has signed a contract so far and that came on Thursday when Carter agreed to . Carter's contract is worth $21.81 million and every dollar is fully guaranteed.
- NFL films to make docu-series about Jerry Jones. The Cowboys owner is getting his own docu-series. NFL Films will be teaming up with Skydance Sports to produce a series about Jones' life, including his then-risky purchase of the Cowboys in 1989.