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Often years the NFL Thanksgiving games aren't the most exciting of affairs, but this year's slate features three intriguing matchups. Five of the six competing teams are above .500, with the one outlier in Detroit coming in on a three-game winning streak. The 2022 NFL Thanksgiving Day schedule begins with Lions vs. Bills at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Cowboys vs. Giants at 4:30 p.m. ET and finishes with Patriots vs. Vikings at 8:20 p.m. E.T.. The first game will see Josh Allen making his second Thanksgiving appearance in as many years, and his four-TD performance in 2021 makes him an intriguing option for Thanksgiving Day NFL props this year.

Allen lit up the Saints on the holiday a year ago, but he also has just two total passing touchdowns over his last three games of 2022. Caesars Sportsbook has his player prop odds at +146 if he exceeds 2.5 passing TDs versus Detroit. Considering the Lions have allowed a league-high of 17 passing scores this year, is jumping on this plus-money prop bet the smart move? Before making any NFL prop bets for Thanksgiving Day, you need to see the NFL prop predictions for Bills vs. Lions, Giants vs. Cowboys and Vikings vs. Patriots from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 155-109 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

It can also be used to crush NFL prop picks. The model enters Week 12 with a 46-36 record on NFL prop picks this season, returning well over $500 for $100 players.

With the NFL on Thanksgiving Day approaching, the model has evaluated the NFL player props from Caesars and found five strong bets. You can only see them here.

Top NFL player prop bets for Thanksgiving Day

After simulating the NFL Thanksgiving Day games 10,000 times and examining the dozens of player props from Caesars Sportsbook, the model says Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson goes over 88.5 receiving yards at a -117 payout. The third-year pro is on the shortlist for best receiver in the league, and he's averaging 109.3 yards per game. He has topped 84.5 receiving yards in seven of 10 games, including six of his last seven.

The LSU product has taken a liking to playing the AFC East this year, going off for 107 yards against Miami and then 193 yards in an epic performance versus Buffalo. Now he gets to face a New England team that has equally struggled versus fellow NFC North wideouts, giving up 116 yards to Allen Lazard of the Packers and 92 yards to Josh Reynolds of the Lions. 

The Patriots have faced just one top-10 passing offense all year and that came in Week 1 when they allowed 94 yards to Tyreek Hill of Miami. Now, the Pats will face another in Minnesota, and the model sees more success for a true No. 1 wideout against them, with Jefferson finishing with 99 receiving yards on average. See more NFL props here.

How to place NFL prop bets for Bills-Lions, Cowboys-Giants and Patriots-Vikings

In addition, the model says another star easily surpasses his yardage total and has another plus-money prop payout you'll want to jump on. You need to see the model's analysis before targeting any NFL on Thanksgiving Day prop bets for Lions vs. Bills, Giants vs. Cowboys and Vikings vs. Patriots.

Which Thanksgiving Day NFL prop bets should you target on Thursday? And what other plus-money prop is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see the top NFL on Thanksgiving Day prop bets, all from the model that's up well over $7,000 on top-rated NFL picks.