Los Angeles Rams v Kansas City Chiefs
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On Wednesday morning, I tweeted a joke about the San Diego Padres, who were reportedly among the finalists for Aaron Judge. I joked that there isn't a free agent the Padres aren't willing to throw $300 million at because it seems like the Padres are in for every big-ticket free agent, whether it makes sense or not.

They gave Manny Machado $300 million a few winters ago. They signed Fernando Tatis. Jr to a $340 million contract extension. They traded for Juan Soto, knowing they'll have to pay him well over $300 million, if not $400 million, if they want to keep him when he becomes a free agent. Then they offered at least $300 million to Judge.

I have no idea where the money comes from, but it's there, and the Padres spent more of it Thursday when they signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280 million deal. Granted, it's not quite $300 million, but Bogaerts is a shortstop, the same position the Padres gave Tatis $340 million to play last year. I'm sure there won't be any problems with this anywhere down the line. Oh, and have you noticed how many 11-year deals we're seeing? Bogaerts got one, as did Trea Turner from the Phillies. Nothing says "it'll be the next guy's problem" more than a general manager agreeing to an 11-year contract. 

All right, now let's win money gambling to tide us over until the Padres offer us $300 million.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook


🔥 The Hot Ticket

Raiders at Rams, 8:15 p.m. | TV: Amazon

  • Key Trend: Jefferson has seen his snap count increase every week and was on the field for every snap last week
  • The Pick: Van Jefferson Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-104)

WOOF. This is not the most enticing matchup, as the Rams are fully invested in tanking and the Raiders are 5-7. Granted, they're a 5-7 team that's won their last three games, but there isn't a lot here that should get the casual juices flowing. This leads me to advice many NFL fans could stand to hear: you don't have to watch. Seriously, you don't have to... but if you plan to, let's at least bet on it!

There isn't much I like about this game, but I see value in Van Jefferson's receiving yards. With Cooper Kupp and so many other Rams out, Jefferson has taken on a more prominent role. Jefferson didn't make his 2022 debut until Week 9, and in his first game back, he saw five targets and didn't catch a single one. In the last three games, he's seen 15 targets with eight catches for 109 yards, or 36.3 yards per game.

That's promising, but more encouraging is how many snaps Jefferson is seeing. In his first three games, Jefferson averaged 22 snaps per game. That has increased to 52.3 snaps per game in the last three, including all 63 offensive snaps last week. He's stepped into the No. 1 role, and with the Rams underdogs tonight, the game script should see them needing to throw the ball a lot more often than last week.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: SportsLine's Josh Nagel is 7-2 ATS in his last nine plays involving the Raiders, and he has a spread play on the board tonight if you're more interested in a traditional play.


💰 College Basketball Picks

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No. 20 Iowa State at Iowa, 8 p.m. | TV: FS1

Latest Odds: Iowa Hawkeyes -3

The Pick: Iowa -4 (-110) -- Any time you see a ranked team that's an underdog to an unranked team, take the hint. Remember: the AP Poll -- particularly at the bottom -- is usually a reflection of "who had a good week or a big win the week before" rather than a reflection of who the best teams are.

Iowa State is 7-1, its only loss was to UConn (by 18 points), and it picked up a nice win over St. John's Sunday. Meanwhile, Iowa is 6-2 but hadn't played for six days before the latest poll came out (and hadn't lost to Duke yet), and that game was a win over a mediocre Georgia Tech. But Iowa is a better team than Iowa State. It's also playing this game -- which is a bitter rivalry, by the way -- at home, where it has been much stronger.

Both of Iowa's losses have come at neutral sites. It has won its first four home games, scoring 95.5 points per game. Granted, the competition has been soft, but the Hawkeyes have long been tough to beat at Carver Hawkeye. As for how Iowa State has performed on the road, well, we don't know. The Cyclones have played two neutral site games (a win over North Carolina and the UConn loss) but have yet to play a true road game this season. That's another reason I like the Hawkeyes tonight.

Colorado State at Colorado, 9 p.m. | TV: ESPN2

Latest Odds: Colorado Buffaloes -4

The Pick: Colorado -4 (-110) -- I promise I didn't intend to pick two rivalry games from tonight's limited college slate, but it's a nice coincidence. The Buffaloes are off to a slow start, entering at 4-5. That includes two straight losses to Arizona State and Washington and a couple of bad losses to Grambling State and UMass in November. However, the Buffs have only played three of their first nine games at home. They won the first two and lost to Arizona State by a point in the third.

Colorado State is 6-3 but has played one of the weakest schedules in the country (Colorado has played one of the most difficult). The Rams have shot the lights out to start the season but will face a Colorado defense that's been better than nearly everybody else the Rams have faced. Plus, while Colorado has played only three games at home, this will be Colorado State's second road game. It lost the first to Charleston. Finally, while Colorado State has shot 43.8% from three at home, on the road, and at neutral sites, it's shooting 24.2% from three. That's not insignificant!

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Matt Severance is crushing college basketball right now and he's posted a play for tonight's game between No. 25 Ohio State and Rutgers.