The Miami Dolphins, led by Mike McDaniel, will face a stiff test on Thursday Night Football. The Dolphins are 3-0 this season after a win over the Buffalo Bills, and Miami will travel to Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati for a Thursday tilt in Week 4. The Bengals will host the Dolphins and Cincinnati is 1-2 overall and 0-1 at home this season. Cincinnati defeated the New York Jets in Week 3, and the Bengals aim to stop a two-game losing streak to the Dolphins.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bengals as 3.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Bengals odds. Before you make any Bengals vs. Dolphins picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine's resident Dolphins expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.

In addition, Hartstein has gone 21-10-1 on his last 32 picks involving the Dolphins, returning almost $1,000. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Dolphins vs. Bengals:

  • Dolphins vs. Bengals spread: Bengals -3.5
  • Dolphins vs. Bengals over/under: 48.5 points
  • Dolphins vs. Bengals money line: Bengals -195, Dolphins +162
  • Miami: Dolphins are 12-7-1 against the spread in their last 20 games
  • Cincinnati: Bengals are 15-9 against the spread in their last 24 games

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami is buoyed by one of the most dynamic wide receiver duos in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are just the second pairing in NFL history to have at least 300 receiving yards apiece in the first three weeks. Both rank in the top five of the league in receiving yards, and Hill is bringing a new threat to Miami's offense. The six-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro selection is in the top five with 14.7 yards per touch and has 317 yards and two touchdowns in three games. Hill was also in the top 10 in receiving yards (1,239) and receiving touchdowns (nine) last season, with a long track record of success.

Waddle set the NFL's rookie receptions record with 104 catches last season and ranks in the top 10 in receptions and yards since the start of the 2021 season. In 2022, Waddle leads the NFL with 17.1 yards per touch, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently ranks in the top five in completion rate (71.3%), yards per pass attempt (9.2), passing touchdowns (eight), passing yards (925), passer rating (117.8), and QBR (82.8) through three games.

Why the Bengals can cover

Cincinnati is not firing on all cylinders on offense to this point, but the sky's the limit for the Bengals on that side of the ball. Even with early scuffles, Cincinnati has 71 first downs, a top-five mark in the NFL, and Joe Burrow led the league in completion rate and yards per attempt in 2021. He ranks in the top 10 of the league in passing yards (812) and passing touchdowns (six) this season, and Burrow has an elite pass-catcher in Ja'Marr Chase.

Chase is in the top 10 in receiving yards (1,667) and receiving touchdowns (15) since the start of the 2021 season, and the Bengals also have a Pro Bowl running back in Joe Mixon who generated more than 1,500 yards from scrimmage and 16 touchdowns in 2021. On defense, the Bengals have a headliner in Trey Hendrickson, who has 30.0 sacks since the start of the 2020 season, third-most in the NFL. Hendrickson racked up 2.5 sacks in Week 3, and the Bengals rank in the top 10 in points allowed, yards allowed, first downs allowed, net yards per pass attempt allowed, yards per carry allowed, and rushing yards allowed in the first three weeks of the season.

How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning Under on the point total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.

Who wins Bengals vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And which critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bengals vs. Dolphins spread to back, all from the expert who 21-10 on Miami picks.