If you're like me, you have a lot of injured pitchers right now. Fortunately for us, the waiver wire is replete with interesting pitcher alternatives.
So why weren't they drafted in the first place? Well, draft status is usually a reflection of past performance, and by and large, these pitchers' past performance leaves something to be desired. Breakouts do happen, though, for a large number of players (and especially pitchers) every year, and oftentimes, when a breakout is on the horizon, it will first reveal itself in spring training.
Analyzing players on their spring performance is a tricky endeavor. They're not out there competing, after all, but preparing. Hitters may not have their timing down yet. Pitchers may not have a feel for all their pitches yet. Suffice it to say that not everyone is bringing his A game.
Furthermore, the players most likely bringing their A game are the ones with the most to prove, and the ones with the most to prove are also the ones least likely to be drafted in Fantasy. It's reasonable to expect, then, that there will be a certain number of spring training fakeouts every year. In fact, generally speaking, you're better off ignoring spring training stats.
But it can also go the other way, as was demonstrated most dramatically in 2021. In the lead up to that season, three pitchers who were widely undrafted began hinting at better things to come. Their names were Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodon and Trevor Rogers, and you can see how that 2021 season turned out for each of them:
Ray, you may remember, went on to win AL Cy Young, and Rodon placed in the top five. Rogers, meanwhile, was runner-up for NL Rookie of the Year. If you picked up even one, it was completely transformational for your pitching staff. If you picked up all three, chances are you won your league.
Granted, not every year can be like that one, but every year, pitchers who don't start out as prized Fantasy assets go on to make a significant Fantasy impact. Who has the best chance to be this year's Ray, Rodon or Rogers? Based on what I observed this spring, I'm thinking any of these 12 could be.
Of course, the most likely scenario for each is that you're dumping him at the end of April and moving on to something else, so when possible, casting a wide net is advised. But since you don't have unlimited roster space, I've listed them by order of priority.
A.J. Puk was about as high-end as pitching prospects get in his earliest days with the Athletics, but he got moved to the bullpen in 2019 as a way of bringing him back from Tommy John surgery sooner. His strikeout rate was consistently high as a reliever, but it's been even higher this spring as he's expanded his arsenal in preparation for starting, with the splitter in particular earning rave reviews.
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Luis Severino basically lost three consecutive seasons to injury, so perhaps it's no surprise that he returned with a 6.65 ERA in 2023. But wait, the return was actually in 2022, when he put together a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.9 K/9, looking much like the ace we remember. The Mets have suggested that his struggles last year were actually due to him tipping his pitches, and his results this spring would seem to back up the claim.
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As good as Gavin Stone's spring stat line is, it excludes the most impressive outing of all -- one in which he struck out eight of the 11 batters he faced in an exhibition against the Korean national team. His time in the majors last year was an abject disaster, but his time in the minors was disappointing as well, which was curious given that he had a 1.48 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 12.4 K/9 down there in 2022. He apparently had his own pitch-tipping issue, though, and also struggled to find his mechanics after pitching through a blister on his big toe. Now that he's right again, the hype should begin anew.
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Jack Flaherty has brought nothing but disappointment since he broke through with a 2.75 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 in 2019, placing fourth in NL Cy Young voting that year. But the Tigers hinted at a plan for fixing him when they signed him to a one-year deal this offseason and immediately put pitching coach Chris Fetter to work breaking down his mechanics. Sure enough, Flaherty is back to throwing as hard as during that 2019 season and is tied for third in strikeouts this spring.
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Flaherty isn't the only Tigers pitcher throwing harder. Casey Mize's fastball has consistently measured 1-2 mph harder than he's previously thrown in the majors, and with that bump and some tweaks to his slider, he's looking more like the guy the Tigers thought they were getting when they drafted him first overall in 2018. Matt Manning, another Tigers pitcher who's suddenly throwing harder and missing more bats, might also be featured here if Mize hadn't beaten him out for the final rotation spot.
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Tyler Wells probably doesn't have enough swing-and-miss in his arsenal to deliver on an ace outcome, but then again, he was pretty much the Orioles ace in the first half last year, going 7-4 with a 3.18 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 8.9 K/9. The team shelved him soon after over concerns of him wearing down, but he's been back in peak form this spring, profiling as sort of a poor man's Bailey Ober whose pristine control and proclivity for weak fly balls should yield a low WHIP.
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Velocity has always been Jordan Hicks' calling card, but he's cut way, way down on that velocity with his move to the starting rotation this spring, averaging nearly 5 mph less on his fastball. Normally, that would be a terrifying development, but the results speak for themselves, most notably his latest outing in which he struck out 10 over five no-hit innings, registering 20 swinging strikes on just 72 pitches. Command has long been an issue for him, so perhaps he's come to learn that trading off velocity for command will improve his overall outcomes. A similar adjustment took Cristopher Sanchez from a complete no-name to a quality Fantasy contributor down the stretch last season.
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Unlike Hicks, Garrett Crochet has been throwing more strikes without sacrificing anything in the way of velocity this spring, and somehow, his fastball appears even zippier than the 99 mph reading on the radar gun (which should be plenty zippy enough). He hasn't been a full-time starter since high school, and workload concerns go without saying. There's no better weapon than a swing-and-miss fastball, though, so if he's throwing strikes with his (while pairing it with an excellent slider), he could be highly impactful at least to begin the year.
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Workload could also be an issue for Luis Gil, who's barely pitched the last two years while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the way he was piling up strikeouts this spring, the impact could be significant for as long as he lasts. He was basically a two-pitch pitcher when last we saw him, but the strides he's made with his changeup this spring could make his already excellent fastball even more effective.
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You may think you've already seen all you need to see from Ryan Weathers, who has a 5.88 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 6.8 K/9 in 156 career innings, but he only turned 24 in the offseason. The former first-round pick is in the Marlins pitching factory now and has made notable gains in command and velocity this spring. And given all the injuries to the Marlins staff, his role seems pretty secure.
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OK, so I'm purely scouting the stat line here. Mike Soroka hasn't been a major focus for those on the White Sox beat, and the Cactus League is mostly devoid of Statcast data. But we all recognized what a talent he was as a 21-year-old for the Braves in 2021, demonstrating superlative control and elite ground-ball tendencies. Now another year removed from his second torn Achilles and another year into his mission to miss more bats, we may be seeing results.
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Ryne Nelson leaned way too much on his fastball as a rookie last year, but his secondary pitches were pretty good. He's spent this spring learning to trust in them more, which is also what keyed Brandon Pfaadt's turnaround down the stretch last year. Nelson still gave up his share of hits in Cactus League play, but the strikeouts were consistently high, putting him in a tie with Jack Flaherty for the third-most in spring training.
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