Early 2023 Fantasy Baseball Outfield Rankings: Top 30 offers an abundance of power-speed bats, but also risk

I know what you're going to ask. Where's Bryce Harper?

Sorry to say, but he won't be eligible in the outfield to begin 2023, at least not in CBS Sports leagues. A UCL injury -- one that may still need to be addressed surgically -- rendered him a full-time DH for most of 2022. It's possible he regains outfield eligibility early next year, at which point I'd rank him ninth at the position, but until we hear more about that elbow, fair to say his defensive future is murky.

Early rankings: C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | OF | SP | RP

Also confined to DH for the start of 2023 are J.D. Martinez and Franmil Reyes. They're not the hot commodities Harper is, but outfield needs all the help it can get right now, having strangely become one of the more strained positions. You should make out well enough in a three-outfielder league, but if you neglect the position early in a five-outfielder league, you'll be in dire straits.

Fortunately, it's the position that shines brightest early, offering no fewer than eight viable first-round picks (Harper excluded). But even if you go for one of them, you should aim to grab two more outfielders before this top 30 is depleted.

Note that the focus here is standard 5x5 scoring (such as Rotisserie leagues), but scroll a little further and you'll see my rankings for points leagues.

Top 30 outfielders for 2023

1	Aaron Judge New York Yankees CF
Judge's 62 home runs weren't only historic but also 16 more than anyone else in a year when power was suppressed overall. You could harp on his health history or say he was just playing for a contract, but he was so far ahead of the field in both major scoring formats that to choose anyone else here is cuteness for cuteness' sake.
2	Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers RF
Like Judge, Betts picked an odd year to set a career high in home runs, and we can take comfort in knowing his comparatively middling exit velocities still translate to premium production. His base-stealing has slipped since joining the Dodgers but could be renewed with the rule changes next year, and you know the combined run and RBI total will be massive.
3	Julio Rodriguez Seattle Mariners CF
Rodriguez isn't a slam dunk for this spot but certainly has the most sizzle of anyone in contention, having just put together a 25/25 season as a 21-year-old rookie. That it wasn't altogether unsurprising tells you a little about his potential, as does his Statcast page all lit up in red.
4	Ronald Acuna Atlanta Braves RF
There's a temptation to rank Acuna both higher and lower than this -- higher because he was the surefire No. 1 pick a couple years ago and lower because, well, he wasn't so great this year. The underlying numbers reveal no major red flags, so the hope is that further removal from ACL surgery gets him back to being a 40/40 candidate.
5	Yordan Alvarez Houston Astros DH
If there's anyone who can challenge Judge's claim for best power hitter in the game, it's Alvarez, whose Statcast page looks like Urkel's report card with 99s and 100s in all the areas that matter most. He was hampered in the second half by a hand injury, and though he ultimately overcame it, it adds to a growing pile of health concerns.
6	Juan Soto San Diego Padres RF
Some might avoid Soto on principle after the season he just had, but so much of what distinguished him as the best pure hitter in the game remains intact, beginning with the unparalleled plate discipline. He may have put the ball on the ground too much -- a problem exacerbated by the exaggerated infield shifts that are now going away.
7	Kyle Tucker Houston Astros RF
My concerns about Tucker's base-stealing proved unfounded as he doubled down despite earning low marks for sprint speed. It solidifies him as a first-rounder even if he turns out to be a .260 hitter, but his low strikeout rate gives me hope he can rebound to more like a .290 batting average.
8	Mike Trout Los Angeles Angels CF
It's no longer just a matter of Trout staying healthy, though that's increasingly far-fetched with the news of his chronic back issue. His strikeout rate has escalated to the point he's no longer a clear standout in batting average. It's possible next year's rule changes help him rebound to some degree as a base-stealer, though.
9	Michael Harris Atlanta Braves CF
Harris hit nearly .300 while performing at a near 30/30 pace as a 21-year-old rookie, which is more than enough to justify this ranking, but even so, I'm hesitant. His plate discipline is suspect, his ground-ball rate was through the roof, and his late-season slump, which carried over into the playoffs, may have been the start of an overdue correction.
10	Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies LF
Conventional wisdom might favor the base-stealers who occupy the next several spots, but if next year's rule changes make stolen bases more prevalent, then I suspect Schwarber's outlier power production will be of greater benefit, particularly if the accompanying shift ban serves to bring up his batting average a bit.
11	Luis Robert Chicago White Sox CF
I'll continue to rank Robert this high in deference to his upside, but we need to see him stay on the field before we can count on him for anything like first-round numbers. It doesn't help that his power lagged even when healthy this year, but at least his strikeout gains from 2021 carried over, bolstering his batting average projection.
12	Starling Marte New York Mets RF
Marte's 2022 numbers are enough to justify this ranking, but while the league as a whole may be about to speed up with pickoff attempts being severely limited next year, the 34-year-old is showing signs of slowing down and may struggle to stay on the field at his age. Still, the track record speaks for itself.
13	Randy Arozarena Tampa Bay Rays LF
While Statcast generally does a good job of predicting a hitter's stats from his batted balls, it's missed the mark badly on Arozarena, underestimating him for two consecutive years. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, and I should probably rank you like the power/speed threat you've been.
14	Cedric Mullins Baltimore Orioles CF
The majors' only 30/30 man in 2021 got about halfway there with the home runs this year. They were always the most dubious part of that breakthrough season, but 16 is still a nice number of home runs from a big-time base-stealer. The decline does make Mullins decidedly second-tier, though.
15	Daulton Varsho Arizona Diamondbacks RF
Naturally, you'll be drafting Varsho to play catcher rather than the outfield, so I suppose what I'm saying is that this is about the point in the outfield rankings when the No. 2 catcher should go off the board, at least when that catcher has a reasonably good chance at a 20/20 or even 25/20 campaign.
16	Teoscar Hernandez Toronto Blue Jays RF
Hernandez's 2022, while still productive, may have seemed like a step back, but from June 1 on, once he moved past an oblique injury and the coldest stretch of the season when so many hitters struggled, he had an .867 OPS, which was right on par with 2021. He's also fast enough that you can expect him to run more with next year's rule changes.
17	Adolis Garcia Texas Rangers RF
Some may not like the separation I've put between Arozarena and Garcia here seeing as they had the same number of combined home runs and stolen bases (52) in 2022, but Garcia has the lower floor. He's unlikely to reach base at a .300 clip even if he hits well, so it wouldn't take much of a slump to cost him playing time.
18	George Springer Toronto Blue Jays CF
Why wouldn't I do what I did for Schwarber and rank the power guy more favorably, believing speed will be more plentiful next year? Well, I'm not as confident Springer's middling exit velocities still translate to big power in a post-juiced ball league. He was more of a points league specialist in 2022 and of course always struggles to stay on the field.
19	Eloy Jimenez Chicago White Sox DH
This feels a shade low for Jimenez, who seemed to be on the ascent a couple years ago and did a lot to relieve my concerns about him following the debacle that was 2021. A .290-hitting, 30-homer outcome is back on the table for the 25-year-old, but the bigger question is if he can stay healthy enough to deliver on it.
20	Byron Buxton Minnesota Twins CF
Speaking of players who can't stay healthy enough to deliver on their potential, Buxton made it (ahem) 92 games this year, his most since (ahem) 2017. The power gains from his eye-opening 2021 performance carried over, but the strikeouts spiked and he more or less stopped running. Dare to dream, I guess.
21	Bryan Reynolds Pittsburgh Pirates CF
Playing for the Pirates costs Reynolds run and RBI chances, but I'm heartened by his rising home run totals even as home runs become harder to hit. We've seen him hit for average in the past, too, so If his plus speed translates to a hearty number of stolen bases with next year's rule changes, he's the complete package.
22	Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks LF
The 22-year-old flashed his potential as a September call-up, showing a good set of wheels and a propensity for extra-base hits, but he rose so quickly through the minor-league ranks that growing pains are to be expected. If he's ready to hit for average like he did in the minors, he could be a steal here.
23	Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees DH
Stanton still hits the ball as hard as anyone, which is increasingly important with the juiced ball era now behind us, but he had two IL stints and was kind of a disaster after the first, batting .166 in four months' time. His best-case scenario puts him among the home run leaders, but the downside is becoming just as stark.
24	Kris Bryant Colorado Rockies LF
Bryant barely showed up for his first season in Colorado, missing time with a nagging back injury early and a nagging foot injury late. Clearly, there are some durability issues, but not as longstanding as for Buxton or even Stanton, and for the one month Bryant was healthy (July), he hit .330 with five homers and a .965 OPS.
25	Tyler O'Neill St. Louis Cardinals LF
O'Neill actually delivered a career-best strikeout rate, which was the biggest concern for him coming into 2022, but his quality of contact went from massive to middling. Between that and the three separate IL stints, the disappointing numbers make sense, but we're still talking about a potential 30/20 guy if things break right.
26	Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers LF
As long as Yelich continues to deliver premium exit velocities with superlative plate discipline, there's still a chance he could recapture some semblance of his one-time MVP form, but after three years of him falling short, counting on it would be foolish. Still, there's value in a 15-homer, 20-steal guy.
27	Steven Kwan Cleveland Guardians LF
Kwan's capacity for batting average may be even higher than you think. Take out a miserable May, when he seemed to become overly power conscious, and he was a .318 hitter in 2022. The lack of strikeouts bolsters him further in points leagues, but he proved to be enough of a base-stealer to matter in Rotisserie, too.
28	Hunter Renfroe Milwaukee Brewers RF
If not for a couple of IL stints (hamstring, calf), Renfroe likely would have set a career high in home runs in his first year with the Brewers, which was the hope going in. His poor on-base skills limit his upside, but with power in decline around the league, it's comforting that you can still pencil him in for 30-plus long balls.
29	Anthony Santander Baltimore Orioles RF
Santander has a similar power profile to Renfroe and had the better numbers between the two in 2022, but his health history is bleak, which makes it less likely the same will hold true next year. The extreme fly-ball rate that's responsible for the power also keeps the batting average modest.
30	Taylor Ward Los Angeles Angels RF
Ward's full-season stats justify this placement in the rakings, but the shape of his season allows for more extreme interpretations, both positive and negative. He was indispensable for the first and final month but useless for all the months in between, with reason to believe a wrist injury contributed to his struggles.