From a Dynasty Fantasy Football perspective, the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the more difficult teams to evaluate. Sure, Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to be QB1 for the next five-plus years, and Travis Kelce is the unquestioned TE1 until he shows some sign of aging. After that? We know almost nothing.
At running back, the team has Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Isiah Pacheco under club control for next season. Pacheco was the highest ranked in my January running back rankings, but they're in the same tier. While Edwards-Helaire may be an afterthought, there's less than a year that separates the pair in terms of age and Pacheco's rise was directly correlated with the high ankle sprain Edwards-Helaire suffered in Week 11. And there's a chance Edwards-Helaire is activated from injured reserve before the Super Bowl. It wouldn't be the first time Andy Reid surprised us with running back usage in the Super Bowl.
Both of these backs have the upside of being Andy Reid's RB1 heading into 2023, which would guarantee them, at 23 or 24 years old, a spot in the top 25 Dynasty running backs. Both could also be replaced in free agency or the draft. The Chiefs have been very active in the running back market since Kareem Hunt left and their current collection of backs won't likely change that.
The biggest risk for Edwards-Helaire is that he could be a cap casualty and turn into a backup running back in a less appealing offense. But Pacheco is no safer. We've seen time and time again the risk of betting on Day 3 (or UDFA) running backs, even after they've shined in Year 1. James Robinson, Michael Carter, and Elijah Mitchell are just the most recent examples. So I would be thrilled to land a top-15 rookie pick for Pacheco if it's offered. You won't get that for Edwards-Helaire, so I'll hold him until we see how his offseason goes. I wouldn't add either back unless the latter ends up on your waiver wire.
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If you thought that was confusing, wide receiver is even worse. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Kadarius Toney, and Skyy Moore all ranked between 38th and 45th in my most recent Dynasty wide receiver rankings. They're all in Tier 8 as well.
Moore has the advantage of youth, but he did not look ready to play in the NFL during his rookie season. Even in the AFC Championship Game, when injuries forced Moore into a career-high 58% of the Chiefs offensive snaps, Moore produced just three catches for 13 yards on seven targets. He's still just 22 years old, so there's time, but his rookie production is a big red flag.
For Smith-Schuster and Toney, the red flag is the same -- injuries. While Smith-Schuster played 16 games this season, he spent a lot of time on the injury report and wasn't 100% for several of the games he played. Toney has struggled with injuries all the way back to college and has only participated in 19 games in his first two years in the league.
If Smith-Schuster returns to the Chiefs (he's a free agent), I'd project him to be the team's No. 1 wide receiver. But even if he doesn't, it's quite likely the team brings someone in to compete with Toney and Moore for that role. And there's a chance the Chiefs don't want Smith-Schuster and his free-agent market remains as ice cold as it has been the past two seasons.
It appears Toney has the most perceived Dynasty value, but none of these receivers are bringing you a top-15 pick in a rookie draft, so I wouldn't advise selling any of them. Any of them are a buy for a late-second round pick in a rookie draft, just to see what happens this offseason.
The chance to be attached to the best quarterback and arguably the best offense in the NFL gives all five of these players significant upside, but none of them possesses any sort of Dynasty floor whatsoever. That makes them volatile Dynasty assets whose value could swing with one move in March or April. These are not the types of players you want to make big investments in, but they're exactly the type you should be willing to roll the dice on if the price is right. None of them have more upside than Toney, but we're just not sure his body can hold up to a full season of football.