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USATSI

Unless you've been hyper-focused on Fantasy Baseball, you already know that the star of the 2023 NFL rookie class is Bijan Robinson. A running back in the mold of Saquon Barkley, Robinson checks off every box and should be in line for a monster workload for at least the first five years of his career. 

Whether you believe it or not, Robinson is going to be a first-round pick in your league. There's just too much potential for a 1,500-yard, 13-score campaign. You don't normally find guys like that after Round 1. 

The rest of the class will underwhelm. Aside from Lions first-round running back Jahmyr Gibbs, no rookie should be expected to be even a top-65 pick in 2023 seasonal drafts. 

That sounds bad, but it actually creates a slew of opportunities for savvy drafters. There's a silver lining to every rookie receiver, including all four first-rounders. At least one of them figures to outperform expectations (our bet is Jordan Addison for 2023). There's also a tight end you'll read about who could buck the trend of rookies at his position. You should definitely earmark a handful of rookies for your back half of the draft. 

And then there are the quarterbacks. Three were top-four picks, but it's the one from that trio who went last -- Anthony Richardson -- who will capture the imagination of Fantasy managers and become the first of the group to go in drafts thanks to his rushing prowess. 

Bottom line: This rookie group has some interesting players, but most will be late-rounders who could deliver immense returns. Read them. Learn them. Know them. 

Players are listed by the order I would draft them.   

  • Ed. note: These are Dave's top rookies for 2023 seasonal PPR leagues and started with quarterbacks on Tuesday followed by running backs on Wednesday, wide receivers on Thursday and now tight ends.

Height 6-3 5/8 | Weight: 246 | Age by Halloween: 24 years old

What if I told you Kincaid was not only the top Fantasy tight end in the class, but also fifth-best among the wideouts? And what if I told you that in each of his first four seasons Josh Allen has thrown to a player lined up in the slot on at least 25% of his throws? That might be where the sure-handed and fleet-footed Kincaid should spend the majority of his time with Buffalo. In two years at Utah, Kincaid scored a touchdown every 6.6 receptions and averaged 13.2 yards per grab, reeling in short passes against zone coverage while also dominating smaller defenders on jump-ball seam routes. The Bills had to have targeted Kincaid for those two specific roles and not for his blocking ability (which isn't great because he's not a bulky player), nor his experience (he's an ex-hoopster who started playing organized football in 2017). He might not be an every-week fixture, but there's no doubt Josh Allen will look his way. 

2023 DRAFT OUTLOOK: For years it's been a no-no to draft a rookie tight end in Fantasy -- only Kyle Pitts was a reasonable exception. Kincaid isn't quite on that level even though he landed in a pass-heavy offense. It feels a little risky to take him before Round 10 outside of Best Ball leagues, but that's about the range for a pass-catcher with the promise of consistent targets from week to week. 

ROOKIE-ONLY DRAFT OUTLOOK: Expect Kincaid to get plenty of opportunities to be involved in the Bills offense, including a feature role as he learns the pro game. If you're patient, or if you just flat-out need a tight end, Kincaid is worth considering as soon as seventh overall in one-QB leagues and eighth overall in Superflex/two-QB formats. He's a steal if he somehow makes it to 10th overall. 

Height 6-4 1/2 | Weight: 249 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old

The Raiders traded up for the most well-rounded tight end in the 2023 class. The massive Mayer not only will maul defenders in the run game but can also be an effective target for his quarterback (especially if he's shy about throwing downfield like Jimmy Garoppolo has been). Notre Dame has churned out tight ends through the years, but Mayer is the single-season and career record holder for catches and yards. In 2022, Mayer averaged 5.6 catches per game, which is great but not quite as good as the 5.9 per game he had in his breakout 2021. He figures to be a Week 1 starter for Las Vegas, though it remains to be seen just how involved he'll be in the offense from game to game given their other short-area targets (Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow) and big-play guy (Davante Adams). It doesn't help that Mayer isn't an explosive runner. 

2023 DRAFT OUTLOOK: There will be skepticism with Mayer as an every-week contributor in the Raiders passing game. That's why he might actually go undrafted in basic leagues. At minimum, a manager could wait until his final three picks and use one on Mayer just to see how involved he is to start the season. 

ROOKIE-ONLY DRAFT OUTLOOK: Once the top eight players are selected, Mayer figures to be fair game. He might wind up as an annual 60-catch, seven-touchdown guy. Those dudes can make for usable Fantasy tight ends -- and there's upside for him to be better. If you see him available at 15th overall or later, take him. 

Height 6-3 1/4 | Weight: 245 | Age by Week 1: 22 years old

There have been a lot of great tight ends to come out of Iowa recently (George Kittle, T.J. Hockenson, Noah Fant). LaPorta is the latest, an agile, quick-turning, big-handed pass-catcher who uses his body properly to shield defenders away from the ball. He won't sprint past defenses and he's not as good of a blocker as teams might like, but he does have potential to replace the 3.7 catches per game Hockenson had in the Lions offense last year. 

2023 DRAFT OUTLOOK: Given all of the Lions' fun pass-catchers, LaPorta doesn't offer a whole lot of statistical upside. Maybe he has a shot at a couple of solid weeks while Jameson Williams serves his suspension, including his Week 1 matchup at Kansas City, but the full-year outlook is already murky for rookie tight ends. This isn't an exception. He's a late-round flier at best. 

ROOKIE-ONLY DRAFT OUTLOOK: Patient Fantasy managers could eventually find LaPorta to be a good source of touchdowns, but this is the same franchise that couldn't get T.J. Hockenson to a high level. It's hard to have high expectations here. That's why LaPorta won't get much attention until at least 15th overall in rookie-only drafts, and he may last as late as 25th overall.