Major League Baseball's offseason is underway, and that means everyone is thinking about the future. In most cities, that means next season; in some, though, it means the bigger picture, the next three to five years. You're either selling wins or you're selling hope, the old saying goes. We here at CBS Sports like to provide as much hope as we can around this time of the winter by evaluating each team's farm system.
Of course, that doesn't mean every team has an equally good farm system -- some, as you'll find out throughout this process, are lacking in that respect. It does mean, nevertheless, that CBS Sports will be spending the next couple of months examining the top three prospects in each organization. We define "prospects" as retaining their rookie eligibility for the 2024 season, so if a young player is missing that's likely why.
These lists and evaluations are formed following conversations with scouts, analysts, and player development types. There's also firsthand evaluation and bias thrown into the mix. Keep in mind that player evaluation is a hard task, and it's fine if you disagree with the rankings. These are opinions, and they have no real bearing on the future. You can check out our winter top 25 list by clicking here.
With that in mind, let's get to it by dissecting the Tampa Bay Rays.
1. Junior Caminero, 3B (20 years old)
- Top 25 rank: No. 2
- The short version: Massive raw power with the glove to stick at third.
- MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
Caminero is already the answer to a fun trivia question: who did the Rays obtain when they traded right-hander Tobias Myers to the Guardians in November 2021? OK, so folks are more likely to ask the inverse of that question. Caminero has an incredibly fast bat. It doesn't matter that he wraps the barrel; he's able to generate big-time exit velocities and easy power. (His first big-league home run demonstrated how the ball sails off his bat.) He does have an overaggressive approach at the plate, and he was pounding the ball into the sand more than 50% of the time at Double-A before the Rays skipped him to the majors. (To be clear: he was still on a 40-homer pace despite that grounder rate.) Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Jordan Walker are just two players who have faced questions about maximizing their strength by adding lift. They've worked out just fine. The difference between Camerino and those lads is that he has the athleticism and arm to stick at the hot corner. It's unfair to compare any prospect to Austin Riley, but a more polished Caminero could get close.
2. Carson Williams, SS (20 years old)
- Top 25 rank: No. 13
- The short version: Great power and glove obscure hit-tool questions
- MLB ETA: Late 2024
Williams is a surefire shortstop with well-above-average raw power. Even these days, that's a rare combination to find. (There've only been seven 30-plus home-run seasons by shortstops since 2021.) There is reason to have skepticism about his hit tool. Williams connected on less than 70% of his swings this season. That, plus his tendency to work deep counts, means he'll always be strikeout-prone. If Williams can keep his K rate on the sunny side of 30% as he climbs the ladder, he'll produce at a star-level. Shy of that, he should still become a flashy everyday starter.
3. Curtis Mead, INF (23 years old)
- The short version: Skilled hitter with positional, durability questions.
- MLB ETA: Debuted in 2023
Mead made his big-league debut in August, appearing in 24 games and compiling a .253/.326/.349 slash line while seeing action at three infield positions. If you were going solely off his MLB introduction, you'd have a hard time squaring it with this constant presence on top prospect lists. He didn't hit the ball as hard or mind the zone as well as he had in the minors. That's to be expected, to some extent, but we suspect the degree of it had more to do with a small-sample size than anything existential. We will note that Mead has missed a lot of time in recent years: he's appeared in more than 100 games in a season once, with that coming in 2021. He's since appeared in 76 and then 89 combined games. Here's hoping healthier days wait ahead.
