With the 2022-23 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat
Vegas really should've learned its lesson in the Atlanta game. The Heat are skating by on reputation right now. Yes, they won 44 games in the regular season, but take a closer look at the margin of those games. The Heat outscored their opponent by five or fewer points in 24 of their 44 wins this season. That means that, if you set a 5.5-point line on all 82 of their games, they would have a 20-62 record against the spread. The Heat shouldn't be favored by this many points against anybody.
The Bulls aren't just anybody. They present a very simple matchup problem to the Heat: who guards DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine? Toronto had several answers for both and still couldn't stop them. The theoretical answers here would be that Jimmy Butler and Victor Oladipo are the two Heat players best equipped to take on Chicago's two stars... except Oladipo played only nine minutes against the Hawks and Butler has to carry such an enormous scoring burden that it might not be reasonable to expect him to lock down an opposing All-Star.
Miami is favored here largely on the basis of reputation. Everybody assumes the Heat will figure it out because they usually do. But the reality of the 2022-23 Miami Heat is that they are a small, thin group that can't score consistently and just got thoroughly outplayed by the underwhelming Hawks. Chicago is peaking at the right time and creates matchup problems that Miami can't solve. The spread is an easy pick. The real question here is whether or not you also want to take Chicago's plus-185 moneyline. The pick: Bulls +5.5
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves
The actual outcome of this game is something of a mystery largely because we aren't sure how much Rudy Gobert will be able to play, if he suits up at all. He recently told reporters that his back spasms probably would've kept him out of Tuesday's play-in game against the Lakers even if he hadn't been suspended, and indicated that he wasn't sure if he'd be able to play if the game was on Thursday. Gobert's availability could make or break this game for the Timberwolves. They were outscored by 26 points in the minutes Karl-Anthony Towns spent on the bench Tuesday. They desperately need a viable front-court alternative.
Here's the safer play. Anthony Edwards is coming off of one of the worst games of his career in a 3-for-17 shooting performance against the Lakers. There was tape on his shoulder, suggesting some discomfort, but the Timberwolves have not officially disclosed an injury. He's about to spend 48 minutes in the (Lu) Dorture Chamber. He averaged 24.6 points per game this season. So why is his scoring line set at 27.5 points? Tuesday might've been an aberration, but it's not as though the Lakers have any perimeter defenders are dangerous as Dort. If any part of believes that he's playing hurt right now, the under is a slam dunk. The pick: Anthony Edwards under 27.5 points
