No college prospect is ready to play in the NFL the day after the NFL Draft -- no matter how talented, how experienced at the college level, or how "NFL-like" the scheme was at the college level.
Playing, and especially starting, at the NFL level requires growth from all prospects.. Some require a lot, sometimes years of development, while others can make the jump quicker than that.
Not every quarterback with upside can approach self-actualization of their unique abilities. We've seen plenty of remarkably talented quarterbacks enter the league in the last few years, but upside without signs that the ceiling will be reached is more like gambling than projecting.
For many of those first-round failures, assuming they could reach their ceiling was optimistic. But for Jayden Daniels, he has given every reason to believe he'll be a quarterback whose upside is not only attainable, but expected based on how far he's come.
Daniels showcased his athletic and physical gifts at Arizona State and then in his first season at LSU, and his elusiveness, natural ability to improvise and arm talent shined in the Pac-12 and in year one in the SEC. But even the most bullish evaluators on Daniels didn't predict that he would make the seismic leap toward reaching his previously untapped potential in just one offseason.
Over the past 20 years, only one other quarterback has seen similar substantial development year over year: fellow LSU alum Joe Burrow.
Burrow and Daniels are the only two quarterbacks in the last 20 years (minimum 400 drop backs) that increased their adjusted completion percentage by 4% or more AND their yards per attempt by 3.0 or more. And beyond just those two metrics, Daniels also improved in his accuracy downfield, ball placement across the field, decision-making in the red zone and decision-making as a runner.
| 10+ yard completion % | On-target % | Yards per attempt | Red zone TD % | Scrambles | Rush yards before contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 46.9 | 45.6 | 7.2 | 13.6 | 74 | 1.9 |
2023 | 58.8 | 61.8 | 11.1 | 29.3 | 58 | 4.0 |
- All data per PFF
Daniels' ability to improve is almost as exciting to NFL evaluators as his improvement has been, in part because of how he's improved. Often times, NFL evaluators and those in the quarterback training space talk about the areas where quarterbacks can and cannot get better.
Footwork, timing, mechanics and pre-snap play diagnosis are the key areas many quarterbacks, with great coaching and time, can make substantial strides. Anticipation and overall accuracy can improve as well in conjunction with the aforementioned factors, plus repetitions and game action.
But deep-ball placement, post-snap timing and decision-making, and improvisation are all traits that rarely develop for quarterbacks at any level. And if they do, it's over a substantial period of time unlocking the confidence within a quarterback. But for Daniels, he actualized that potential in one offseason in route to winning the Heisman Trophy.
Daniels' deep ball made by far the biggest strides from 2022, as he completed 46% of 20+ yard throws outside the hashmarks in his Heisman campaign, compared to just 30% in the previous season.
The biggest strides on film came from two key areas: a rhythmic, balanced full body throwing motion and release from a variety of platforms, and a confidence as a downfield passer he didn't have in years past. Confidence as a passer leads to trust in fundamentals and natural talent, and Daniels was oozing with confidence as a pocket and downfield passer for all of 2023.
Maybe more impressive, and potentially more important for his NFL transition, was his ability as a play progressor from the pocket. We often talk and hear about college quarterbacks making "NFL throws" like the coveted backside dig route.
The plays in the clips above all are on Daniels' second or third progression, requiring the wherewithal to stay balanced and calm as pressure comes into the A-gap, and the footwork and mechanics to adjust his body to finish the throw with ample velocity.
The LSU offense drastically dropped the amount of play action they used, likely in part because they trusted Daniels to work through progressions with his eyes on the defense post-snap. And Daniels' vision, anticipation and timing growth as a pocket passer proved them right, as he finished the season as one of the best mid-field throwers, especially on dig, in and post routes, in all of college football.
In my discussions with Daniels, he's shared many of the things he did this past offseason that may have been factors in his substantial and swift development: changing his body physically, fundamental growth with private quarterback coaches Taylor Kelly and John Beck, use of technological resources that LSU's innovative staff supplied, and an unquenchable desire to absorb as much film as possible, both of himself and his future peers at the NFL level.
Regardless of what the magic answer was for the remarkable improvement this year, it's a testament to not only how far he's come as a quarterback, but also where he's headed.
NFL teams aren't drafting Caleb Williams or Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye for what they are now, but for what they can and hopefully will become.
And for Daniels, while a Burrow comparison may be optimistic, NFL teams know that, whatever their projected upside is for him to reach, he's given them every reason to feel confident he'll hit that ceiling and then some.
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order, mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
