Week 4 in the NFL kicks off from Lambeau Field where the Green Bay Packers will host the Detroit Lions on Thursday night. While we're still early on in the 2023 season, this is a big divisional game for these NFC North rivals, who both sit at 2-1 on the year. The Packers pulled off a win against the Saints in Week 3, while Detroit took down the Falcons.
Here, we're going to take a look at this game from a gambling perspective. We'll look at the line movement leading up to Thursday, the total, and dive into a handful of player props. Before we do, let's make sure you know how to watch this prime-time head-to-head.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
- Lions: FB Jason Cabinda (knee), OT Matt Nelson (ankle), OG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee) OUT; OT Taylor Decker (ankle), OG Jonah Jackson (thigh), S Kerby Joseph (hip), RB David Montgomery (thigh), CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee, hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
- Packers: OT David Bakhtiari (knee), S Zayne Anderson (hamstring), LB De'Vondre Campbell (ankle), OL Elgton Jenkins (knee) OUT; CB Jaire Alexander (back), RB Aaron Jones (hamstring), OL Zach Tom (knee), CB Carrington Valentine (biceps), WR Christian Watson (hamstring) QUESTIONABLE
This number did a 180 as the Packers initially opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but that has since flipped (likely in part to various injuries) to where they are a 1.5-point home underdog as of Wednesday afternoon.
The pick: Packers +1.5. Green Bay is listing Christian Watson and Aaron Jones as questionable for this game and it looks like there's a solid chance they both return, giving the offense a strong boost. The same can be said for the defensive side of the ball with Jaire Alexander, who was limited on Wednesday. Those reinforcements should help a Packers team that is 3-0 ATS with Jordan Love this season and have gone 7-1 ATS over their last eight games. Detroit has routinely kept games with the Packers close (10-2 ATS over the last 12 meetings), but this game should be more of a PK so taking the points with Green Bay is the way to roll.
There's not really been significant movement with the total. It opened at 46 and has volleyed between that number and 45.5 throughout the week.
The pick: Under 46. Slight lean on the Under as both defenses have been playing well. The Packers held the Saints to 4.2 yards per play on Sunday while the Lions kept Atlanta out of the end zone and to a mere 2.8 yards per play. Since Dan Campbell became the head coach in Detroit in 2021, the Under has hit in 61.1% of the Lions road games.
If you want another breakdown of Thursday night's game, then I suggest you go to SportsLine so you can check out R.J. White's pick. White is a gambling guru who has hit on an absurd number of Packers' picks, going 60-21-2 against the spread in his last 83 picks involving Green Bay. It's almost like the NFL is sending him the script for the game because he seems to know what's happening in Packers games before they're even played.
Jared Goff props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -125, Under -109)
Passing yards: 252.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Passing completions: 23.5 (Over -106, Under -129)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +106, Under -145)
With this expected to be on the lower-scoring side, we can lean on Jared Goff going under his passing touchdowns prop. He's gone under this number in two out of his three games this season, and if David Montgomery plays in this game (which he's trending in the right direction) that could eliminate scoring opportunities for Goff through the air.
Jordan Love props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +104, Under -142)
Passing yards: 230.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: 32.5 (Over -115, Under -119)
Passing completions: 19.5 (Over -133, Under -103)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -151, Under +110)
Rushing yards: 16.5 (Over -135, Under -101)
Jordan Love has gone under this completions prop in two of his last three games. The Packers quarterback is completing just 52.4% of his passes this season (lowest in the NFL) and an off-target rate of 16.7% (highest in the NFL). He now faces a Lions defense that ranks 10th in the NFL in opponent completion percentage, so it won't be easy sledding for Love. With Aaron Jones possibly back in the backfield, that should also take away some throwing situations away.
Props to consider
Sam LaPorta total receiving yards: Over 42.5 (-133). This is a popular play as LaPorta has started to emerge as a top pass-catching option for Goff. The rookie is coming off of his best game of the season where he hauled in eight of his 11 targets for 84 yards. He's gone over this number in his previous two games and his role within the offense only seems to be going up.
Luke Musgrave total receiving yards: Over 35.5 (-125). Yes, we are double-dipping with the rookie tight ends. I think the potential return of Christian Watson could be helpful for Musgrave as less attention will be paid to him by Detroit. And do you know who is surrendering the most receiving yards to tight ends so far this season? The Lions. Musgrave has gone over this number in two of his three games entering Week 4.