The New Orleans Saints (5-6) will play their first home game in a month when they host the Detroit Lions (8-3) on Sunday afternoon. New Orleans has lost back-to-back road games sandwiched around its Week 11 bye, falling into a tie with Atlanta for first place in the NFC South. Detroit had its three-game winning streak snapped in a loss to Green Bay on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions are still 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota and three games ahead of the Packers atop the NFC North standings.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The Lions are 4.5-point road favorites in the latest Saints vs. Lions odds, while the over/under for total points is 47.5. Before making any Lions vs. Saints picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season and is 22-8 straight-up the last two weeks. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model has set its sights on Detroit vs. New Orleans. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NFL betting lines for the game:

  • Saints vs. Lions spread: Lions -4.5
  • Saints vs. Lions over/under: 47.5 points
  • Saints vs. Lions money line: Saints +172, Lions -209
  • Saints vs. Lions picks: See picks here

Why the Saints can cover

New Orleans will be happy to return home for the first time since early November when it beat Chicago by a touchdown. Saints quarterback Derek Carr threw for 211 yards and two touchdowns in that game. Carr missed the second half of the following game due to a concussion, but he returned with a solid performance at Atlanta last week, throwing for 304 yards. 

Detroit is coming off one of its worst showings of the season, losing to Green Bay as an 8.5-point home favorite on Thanksgiving. The Lions allowed 377 yards and turned the ball over three times, and they are now facing some additional pressure in the NFC North standings. New Orleans has dominated this head-to-head series in recent years, winning six times and covering in seven of the last nine meetings. 

Why the Lions can cover

New Orleans is now riding its third two-game losing streak of the season, and it has the worst against the spread record in the NFC (2-8-1). The Saints have struggled as home underdogs, covering the spread just twice in their last 10 games in that role. Quarterback Derek Carr returned from an injury last week, but he did not give his team a lift.

Detroit is coming off a loss to Green Bay, which should serve the Lions well on Sunday. They have bounced back from their last four losses with decisive victories, winning by an average margin of 20.8 points per game. They have covered the spread in 15 of their last 20 games dating back to last season, including five of their last six road games. See which team to pick here.

How to make Saints vs. Lions picks

The model has simulated Lions vs. Saints 10,000 times and the results are in. The model is leaning Under and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in almost 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Saints vs. Lions, and which side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Lions vs. Saints spread you should be all over Sunday, all from the model on a 175-126 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.