Ten of 16 NFL games this week have a spread of three points or fewer. This will lead to tough calls throughout the process of making Week 4 NFL office pool picks, whether that's against the spread or picking winners. Last week, there were six games with a three-point spread or less and the favorite and underdog each won three games straight-up. Having expert advice can be beneficial while picking evenly-matched contests since the slightest edge can mean the difference. How should you approach your Week 4 NFL confidence pool picks?

With so many close games, making your NFL pool picks could be a challenge. Before you make your NFL predictions, you need to see the Week 4 NFL football pool picks from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 167-117 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 21-9 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated the entire Week 4 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Head to SportsLine to see them now.

Top Week 4 NFL office pool predictions

One of the top Week 4 NFL predictions from the model: The San Francisco 49ers (-14) comfortably beat the Arizona Cardinals at home. The Cardinals are coming off a shocking 28-16 victory over the Dallas Cowboys last week, but the 49ers come in with extended rest following a dominant 30-12 victory over the Giants on Thursday Night Football.

The 49ers have scored exactly 30 points in all three games this season in victories over the Steelers, Rams and Giants. The Cardinals have yet to score 30 points in a game over a 1-2 start, including allowing 31 points in the second half in a 31-28 loss to the Giants the week before the 49ers easily took care of the Giants.

Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing yards (353 yards) in a dominant 49ers offense. The Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards (404 yards) and eighth-most yards per attempt (4.6) this season. The model is projecting McCaffrey to post 120 total yards, including 82 rushing yards on 5.3 yards per carry, as the 49ers to score 31 points. The 49ers win in more than 80% of simulations and San Francisco is likely the safest team to get behind in Week 4 NFL pool picks. See the rest of the model's Week 4 NFL pool picks here.

How to make Week 4 NFL office pool picks

The model also made the call on every other Week 4 NFL game and has strong picks for potentially close matchups like Bills vs. Dolphins, Ravens vs. Browns, and Bengals vs. Titans. It's also calling for several favorites to struggle big-time. You can only see all of the model's NFL pool picks here.

So who should you pick in every Week 4 NFL game, and which favorites should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get optimal NFL office pool picks, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,000 since its inception, and find out.