By their standards, the Patriots are in an unprecedented slump under Bill Belichick. New England has now failed to reach the postseason in two of the last three seasons, which coincides with the departure of Tom Brady.
The 2022 campaign may have been the most disappointing of the post-Brady era as it did feel like the organization was on the rebound, particularly after finding a promising young quarterback in Mac Jones who was able to help bring them to the postseason during his rookie year in 2021. However, that perceived positive momentum disintegrated almost instantly as the team started the year 1-4 and ended with an 8-9 record.
"Nobody's satisfied with that," Belichick said Monday of how the season unfolded. "That's not our goal. We need to try to improve on that. Need to improve on it. So, that's all of us. Accountability everywhere, starting with me, coaching staff, players, each unit are all things that we will address. That process will start probably later today."
So, what's next? How will the Patriots attempt to get themselves back on track and push toward contending for not just the postseason, but for a deep run once they get there? Below, we have three points of emphasis the Patriots should look to follow to help fix themselves over the course of the offseason.
1. Hire a true offensive coordinator
The decision to hand the offensive play-calling duties to Matt Patricia blew up in Belichick's face this season. In the wake of losing Josh McDaniels last offseason after he accepted the head coaching position with the Raiders, New England elected to not bring in an outside mind to help run the offense, nor have an offensive coordinator in title. Instead, Belichick gave that responsibility to Patricia, who largely made his bones coming up through the coaching ranks on the defensive side of the ball.
At the time, the decision was questioned and those concerns proved to be warranted. The Patriots offense finished 24th in the NFL in DVOA, 27th in third-down conversion rate, and dead last in red zone percentage. At times the offense looked elementary and -- even more concerning -- Jones regressed in this system.
With this current offensive coaching masthead proving to be substandard, Belichick needs to shake things up, go down a more traditional route, and bring in a legit offensive coordinator who can help breathe life into the unit. Coaches like Bill O'Brien -- already rumored to be on New England's radar -- recently fired Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury, or former Jets head coach Adam Gase should be looked at as viable and realistic candidates.
2. Increase the talent ceiling of the offense
The Patriots enter this offseason armed with the fourth most cap space in the NFL, according to Spotrac. They are also expected to have 11 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft (factoring in compensatory selections), including No. 14 overall. That will be the highest New England has picked since 2008 when they drafted linebacker Jerod Mayo. While there are certainly aspects of the defense that need addressing and/or improving, the offense should be the main area of attack with those assets.
Had the offense been better this season, New England boasted a defense that could've given the top-tier offenses in the AFC fits, which makes its limited capabilities sting that much more.
This offseason, the Patriots need to raise the overall talent ceiling around Jones. Not only do they need to do that simply to help themselves contend in 2023, but they also need to do it so they can get a fair look at Jones before needing to decide if they'll pick up his fifth-year option. While he certainly took a step back in 2022, it's hard to determine how much of it was on the former Alabama QB or the situation that unfolded around him.
With that top pick at the draft, bringing aboard one of this year's top tackle prospects should be the priority. In his latest mock draft, CBS Sports Senior Draft Expert Ryan Wilson has the Patriots taking Georgia offensive tackle Broderick Jones. That type of selection would go a long way in helping create a wall in front of Jones, which had been an issue in 2022 as the Patriots ranked 25th in the league in adjusted sack rate.
Meanwhile, they should use their cap space to focus on finding difference-makers at the skill position either in free agency or via trade. Retaining Jakobi Meyers would be a nice start, but adding a legit No. 1 pass catcher (or something even remotely close to it) is desperately needed. A swing-for-the-fences move may be to look at some of the receivers that are entering the final year of their current contracts. Those players include Marquise Brown, Tee Higgins and Michael Pittman Jr. If any of those guys get disgruntled and are looking for a change of scenery that'll also pay them (like A.J. Brown last offseason), New England should make themselves that destination.
3. Move Joe Judge to special teams coordinator
While the offense does garner most of the attention this season, the special teams unit also left little to be desired. New England was last in the NFL in DVOA on special teams and had a complete meltdown in Week 18 against the Bills, who ran back kickoffs for touchdowns twice. On top of their opponent's kickoff-return struggles, the punting game was also brutal, ranking last in the NFL in punt average. The unit under special teams coordinator Cam Achord hasn't lived up to what Belichick-led special teams groups are accustomed to, so it might be time for a change here.
One way they could go is putting current quarterbacks coach Joe Judge back in as special teams coordinator. Judge held that role for the previous five seasons before leaving to take the Giants head coaching gig in 2020, and routinely produced one of the better units in the league. If New England is reshaping its coaching masthead on offense, it could be a clean transition to move Judge back into a role that he thrived in during his first stint. During Judge's last year as special teams coordinator in 2019, New England ranked 11th in DVOA and was tied as the second best unit in punt net average.
