No one wants to hear about how the guy who did great things probably can't keep them up. But it you were looking for guys to write that about, Courtland Sutton would be one of the top candidates. 

What stands out about Sutton is obvious; his 12% touchdown rate. He's scored nine times on 75 targets this year. From 2020 through 2022 he scored four touchdowns on 213 targets. Virtually no one scores at a 10% clip, much less a 12% clip, so regression is coming at some point, just maybe not this year. Hopefully not in Week 14.

To put this in context, Sutton currently ranks 35th in receptions, 29th in receiving yards, and 18th in PPR Fantasy points. His touchdowns have turned a No. 3 wide receiver into a must-start No. 2. Regression analysis would tell you this won't last. At least for Week 14, I don't care.

Sutton's Week 14 opponent, the Chargers, have given up the third most Fantasy points to wide receivers this season. They've allowed 13 touchdowns to the position in 12 games. Sutton has faced three other top-five matchups and he's scored 13.2 points against the Raiders, 19.1 against the Dolphins, and 16.6 against the Vikings. Of course, he also scored a touchdown in all three of those games.

The final point about Sutton that can get lost in the analysis is that there is a reason he's scoring so often. He's been targeted on 48% of Russell Wilson's throws into the end zone, which ranks second in the NFL, and Wilson has historically (and this season) produced one of the highest touchdown rates in the league. 

You'll find Sutton inside my top 20 wide receivers this week and in my starting lineups. 

  • Heath's Week 14 Previews: QB | RB | WR | TE

You can find more in my weekly projections over at Sportsline. Now here is the rest of the Week 14 WR Preview:

Week 14 WR Preview
WR Preview
Who's Out

The following players are not being projected to play Week 14 at this time. Here's what it means:

HOU Houston • #13
Age: 24 • Experience: Rookie
Nico Collins is a must-start WR, Noah Brown is a fun flex, and John Metchie is a deep flex.
JAC Jacksonville • #13
Age: 27 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Parker Washington is a deep flex.
GB Green Bay • #9
Age: 24 • Experience: 2 yrs.
Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs get a boost.
WR Preview
Numbers to Know
  • 41 -- Michael Pittman has seen 41 targets in his last three games. He's a borderline top-five wide receiver against the Bengals this week. 
  • 10 -- Mike Evans went over 1,000 receiving yards for the 10th straight season. He has double-digit touchdowns in five of those seasons. 
  • 27 -- Adam Thielen only has 27 receiving yards in his last two games combined. Jonathan Mingo looks like the Panthers' No. 1 and Thielen looks like someone you'd rather sit.
  • 2.91 -- Nico Collins' 2.91 YPRR ranks third behind only Tyreek Hill and Brandon Aiyuk this season. He should be a league winner without Tank Dell.
  • 2.92 -- Deebo Samuel leads all receivers at 2.92 Fantasy points per target. Brandon Aiyuk is second at 2.48.
  • 30.6% -- Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs with a 30.6% target share over the past two weeks. As he runs more routes those efficiency stats are starting to pay off in Fantasy production.
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that matter
Projections powered by Sportsline
HOU Houston • #85
Age: 28 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NYJ HOU -6 O/U 33
OPP VS WR
1st
PROJ PTS
8.4
WR RNK
42nd
YTD Stats
REC
21
TAR
30
REYDS
439
TD
1
FPTS/G
11.8
LAR L.A. Rams • #10
Age: 30 • Experience: 7 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ BAL BAL -7 O/U 40.5
OPP VS WR
22nd
PROJ PTS
12.4
WR RNK
26th
YTD Stats
REC
33
TAR
59
REYDS
432
TD
2
FPTS/G
11.3
DEN Denver • #14
Age: 28 • Experience: 6 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ LAC LAC -3 O/U 44
OPP VS WR
23rd
PROJ PTS
11
WR RNK
21st
YTD Stats
REC
50
TAR
75
REYDS
637
TD
9
FPTS/G
13.5
WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 14 Adds (WR Preview)
CAR Carolina • #15
Age: 22 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ NO NO -5 O/U 37.5
OPP VS WR
25th
WR RNK
44th
ROSTERED
24%
YTD Stats
REC
34
TAR
67
REYDS
355
TD
0
FPTS/G
6.3
Mingo saw a season-high 10 targets in the Panthers first game since their coaching change. It was his fourth straight game with at least six targets and his second game in a row with double-digit PPR Fantasy points. He has top 24 upside in this role, but he'll have to get into the end zone to make that happen, which he hasn't done yet.
CLE Cleveland • #8
Age: 23 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs JAC CLE -3 O/U 30.5
OPP VS WR
21st
WR RNK
34th
ROSTERED
53%
Moore saw a season-high 12 targets in Week 13. You can attribute this mostly to the fact that Amari Cooper missed most of the game, but Moore does know Joe Flacco from his time with the Jets. If Cooper misses Week 14 Moore is a good flex with top 20 upside.
BAL Baltimore • #3
Age: 31 • Experience: 9 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs LAR BAL -7 O/U 40
OPP VS WR
22nd
WR RNK
42nd
ROSTERED
57%
YTD Stats
REC
27
TAR
47
REYDS
408
TD
2
FPTS/G
7.8
Beckham was a part-time player before the bye, but his 41% TPRR in his last two games shows a player who could be a Fantasy starter if he got healthy while the Ravens were off. I'd rather stash Beckham than start him, but he's a TD-dependent flex this week.
Stashes (WR Preview)
NE New England • #81
Age: 23 • Experience: Rookie
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
@ PIT PIT -6 O/U 30
OPP VS WR
2nd
WR RNK
NR
ROSTERED
43%
YTD Stats
REC
36
TAR
55
REYDS
410
TD
0
FPTS/G
7.8
Douglas has already been ruled out for Thursday, so he may be dropped in more leagues than he's added in this week. Still, he had 18 targets in his last two games and I expect him to be right back in that role once he's healthy. That would make him a WR3 in the Fantasy playoffs.
WR Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play (WR Preview)
Projections powered by Sportsline
CIN Cincinnati • #1
Age: 24 • Experience: 3 yrs.
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs IND IND -1 O/U 40
OPP VS WR
4th
PROJ PTS
16.7
WR RNK
12th
YTD Stats
REC
86
TAR
124
REYDS
1063
TD
7
FPTS/G
19.5
It took one week for Chase to remind us that he is QB-proof. Jake Browning has thrown 28% of his passes to Chase and Chase is averaging 1.6 FP/TGT on throws from Browning. If what Browning showed on Monday night is even close to real, Chase is underpriced by $1,000.
Contrarian DFS Play (WR Preview)
Projections powered by Sportsline
LAC L.A. Chargers • #13
Age: 31 • Experience: 11 year
Weekly Breakdown
MATCHUP
vs DEN LAC -3 O/U 44
OPP VS WR
7th
PROJ PTS
19.3
WR RNK
3rd
YTD Stats
REC
102
TAR
138
REYDS
1175
TD
8
FPTS/G
22.3
The top contrarian play last week was Nico Collins, let's hope we can repeat that. Allen completely busted last week but we're talking about a guy who already has three 30-point outbursts this season and he's likely to be lower rostered than he should be.
WR Preview
Heath's Projections

My full set of Week 14 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 14. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available at Sportsline.