Hello and happy Wednesday, folks! John Breech is taking the day to catch up on Andy Dalton film from last week, so you've got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the NFL.
This is the Pick Six newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We've got Week 6 predictions, betting trends, lots of quarterback news, and more:
- Today's show: Week 6 betting trends, preview, predictions
Tyler Sullivan and John Breech joined Will Brinson on Wednesday's "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to preview this week's slate of games from a betting perspective. Some highlights:
- Surveying potential survivor picks for Week 6, Brinson wouldn't rule out taking the Bears on "Thursday Night Football," considering how poorly Washington has played. But Breech is confident in the Rams over the Panthers, even if Carolina gets the "one-game spark" from an interim coach, predicting Aaron Donald getting after emergency QB P.J. Walker.
- Sullivan is all over the Chiefs (-3) as home underdogs against the Bills: "Josh Allen's played well, he's the betting favorite to win MVP right now, but ... Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is 7-0 against the spread." Brinson agreed, suggesting that "Mahomes catching three at home is crazy," and that the Raiders' hot start against Kansas City likely influenced the line.
- Breech acknowledged the Eagles' balanced attack but cautioned against betting big on them for "Sunday Night Football," noting that the Cowboys have now won eight straight games against NFC East opponents, going 8-0 ATS.
Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.
2. Prisco's Picks: Bills top Chiefs, Eagles edge Cowboys
Pete Prisco is feeling spicy after going 9-1 in prop bets on CBS Sports HQ last week. Now, he's back with predictions for every single Week 6 matchup. Here's a sampling:
- Bills 37, Chiefs 31: This is the game of the week, and maybe the year. The shootout between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will be a treat to watch. Will either be stopped? I doubt it. This time, the Bills win it late.
- Eagles 27, Cowboys 20: The Cowboys pass rush is fierce, but the Eagles can run the ball to negate it and Jalen Hurts can move. This could be Dak Prescott back for Dallas, but Cooper Rush has played well. Even so, Philly at home is the pick.
- Cardinals 34, Seahawks 30: The Seahawks have been fun to watch on offense as Geno Smith is off to a fast start. But the defense has been terrible. This will be a shootout. Kyler Murray will get the best of his rivals.
3. Rookie rankings: Sauce Gardner among three Jets in top 15
Every week, draft expert Josh Edwards surveys the best newcomers around the NFL, ranking the best rookie performers of the year. Through five games, he's smitten with the development occurring in New York, where the Jets have three different players in his top 15 for 2022, including new No. 1 Sauce Gardner and his teammate Breece Hall, who broke out as the club's lead ball-carrier in a big win over the Dolphins. Here's a look at Edwards' latest top five:
1. Jets CB Sauce Gardner
2. Falcons WR Drake London
3. Jaguars LB Devin Lloyd
4. Jets WR Garrett Wilson
5. Seahawks OT Abraham Lucas
"The amount of respect that Gardner has across the league in such a short period of time is remarkable," Edwards writes. "His recognition in zone has improved, and he is still making plays downhill in run support."
4. QB news: Mayfield hurt, Tua returns, Wilson set to play
Some teams are living large thanks to their star power under center (more on that below), but a handful of others are hurting at the most important position, literally and figuratively. Here's some of the latest:
- Baker Mayfield to miss multiple weeks with ankle injury: The Panthers' embattled starter is set to be replaced by third-stringer P.J. Walker against the Rams, with Steve Wilks taking over as interim head coach
- Russell Wilson expected to play after shoulder surgery: The ex-Seahawks star has struggled in his Broncos debut and was limited at practice before Week 5, but he's set to suit up on Monday night against the Chargers
- Tua Tagovailoa back at practice after concussion scare: Less than two weeks after apparently suffering his second head/neck injury in a span of four days, the Dolphins QB resumed throwing on Wednesday, though coach Mike McDaniel made it clear Tagovailoa will not play in Week 6 against the Vikings.
- Ron Rivera apologizes to Carson Wentz: The Commanders coach had publicly singled out "quarterback" as the team's biggest shortcoming, even as Wentz has gotten little help from Washington's O-line and defense
5. Ranking three-win teams: Eagles, Cowboys are legit
Five weeks into the 2022 season, 14 different teams have at least three wins under their belt, putting them above .500. But which ones are legitimate contenders, and which ones are due for a drop-off? Jordan Dajani has ranked them all from worst to first, with some -- like the Packers (No. 6) and 49ers (No. 7) -- garnering more trust than others. In the red-hot NFC East, Dajani isn't necessarily sold on the Giants (No. 11), but he is buying into both the Eagles (No. 2) and Cowboys (No. 4).
While Philly is the lone remaining undefeated team in the NFL, I think its best days are ahead of them. The defense has the potential to be a top-three unit, and Hurts could be set to take another step forward as we continue to march through the regular season. With how weak the NFC is, the Eagles are going to have an opportunity to make a deep run.
The Cowboys have allowed under 20 points in five straight games to start the year for the first time since 1972. They are third in points allowed per game (14.4), fifth in yards allowed per play (4.7) and first in pressure percentage (41.9 percent). ... The offense did not look good in the first few quarters of the season with Dak Prescott at the helm, but if he returns and immediately improves their attack, the Cowboys are a legitimate contender.
6. QB Power Rankings: Geno Smith approaches top 15
No one influences a season quite like the QB, so every week, we rank all 32 active starters, separating the most reliable signal-callers from the most replaceable. This week, the biggest development was past and present Seahawks QBs heading in opposite directions: Geno Smith is now knocking on the door of the top 15 as he turns in one efficient performance after another, whereas Russell Wilson is threatening to slip outside the top 15 thanks to an erratic run in Denver.
Check out the full 1-32 rundown right here, which includes these notable movers:
12. Broncos' Russell Wilson (-2)
16. Titans' Ryan Tannehill (-2)
17. Seahawks' Geno Smith (+3)
19. Lions' Jared Goff (-2)
23. Colts' Matt Ryan (-5)
