Bettors should take note of the successful start for NFL underdogs against the spread this season before making any Week 4 NFL picks. Underdogs of four-plus points are 17-8 ATS (68%), which is the best record after three weeks since 2000. There are four underdogs of at least four points in the Week 4 NFL schedule, including the Texans against the Chargers (-5) and the Patriots against the Packers (-9.5). Which NFL odds should you target this week?
The Chargers are as beat up as any team in the league with Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Joey Bosa just some of the names playing hurt or sidelined for Sunday. Can Houston maintain its undefeated against the spread record and which other Week 4 NFL spreads should you keep a close eye on? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top Week 4 NFL predictions
One of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Steelers (-3.5) cover against the Jets. Coach Robert Saleh says he expects Zach Wilson (knee) to be under center, but he's not necessarily an upgrade over Joe Flacco. Last year, Wilson ranked last in completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, passer rating, and sacks per game.
That last stat could be the biggest concern come Sunday since Jets left tackle George Fant exited his last game. New York is already without its top two offensive tackles, so they could be down to No. 4 and No. 5 at the position if Fant can't suit up. With or without Fant, the model predicts Pittsburgh's defense to wreak havoc in the backfield since it projects the Steelers to have four sacks. Pittsburgh is forecasted to win by eight points, per the model and thus cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations.
Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Lions (-3.5) cover the spread at home versus the Seahawks. Detroit ranks second with 31.7 points per game in part because the team is avoiding mistakes. The Lions rank among the top five in fewest turnovers and fewest sacks allowed, and the offense is taking advantage of these extended possessions. Meanwhile, Seattle's offense is struggling in the post-Russell Wilson era, ranking 28th in both points and yards.
Detroit has scored at least 24 points in every game, while Seattle has yet to reach that threshold even once. The model sees both of those trends continuing with the Lions prevailing by seven points. Thus, Detroit (covers in well over 50 percent of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 4 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,000 since its inception, and find out.
Week 4 NFL odds, lines, spreads
Sunday, Oct. 2
Seahawks at Lions (-3.5, 48)
Jets at Steelers (-3.5, 41.5)
Monday, Oct. 3